Preseason for a newly promoted Premier League team is a unique experience. It’s filled with hope, new signings and the belief that the club shouldn’t be underestimated.

Promotion has instilled a belief in what the manager is doing, and that has been transmitted to the players. For some of the players, it’s their first time in the Premier League and they’re excited — they have earned the right to be there, and finally they get the chance to test themselves against some of the best players and clubs in the world.

But from my experience, sometimes that sense of belief can be misleading. The games you play in preseason don’t necessarily prepare you for the difficulty of playing in the Premier League.

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After memorably staying up on the final day of the 2011-12 season with Queens Park Rangers, we had the belief that the next season would be far less stressful. No longer would we be considered relegation favorites; Instead, we could start to look up the table. We were unbeaten during our preseason tour in Asia. Then we signed Champions League winners such as Júlio César and Park Ji-Sung, so of course we believed we would have a better season.

But it didn’t work out like that in the end. We didn’t play badly, we just didn’t win games and played 16 times before getting our first victory that season, which cost manager Mark Hughes his job. A few months later, our next preseason campaign was preparing us for a stint in the Championship after our relegation.

You soon realize that even though the players and teams you’re up against every week in the league aren’t all better than you, they’re all more than capable of taking points from you. And at times when you least expect it. You don’t really sense that in preseason — not until you experience it for the first time.

Then you have the other side — the teams and players who have been in the Premier League before, been relegated and are now back. I always fancy them a bit more the second time around; it’s not that it’s going to be perfect, but they have a better sense of the details that make a big difference. If they’re good enough, they’ll manage those moments better. The players are a bit older and the managers have more experience — maybe another 50, 60 games under their belt — so it’s a mix of emotions: excitement, belief and a desire to do well. But more importantly to try to do whatever it takes this time around, as opposed to solely relying on their principles.

The reality is that 20 teams can’t all reach their goals. And it doesn’t matter how much effort you put in; there’s no guarantee your season will be a success. At times it doesn’t feel fair as you’re doing everything you can, but the results just aren’t there. You’ll want to say you have been unlucky, but in reality, that’s not the problem; Sometimes we forget that every club works hard to be successful, but most will end up disappointed. That’s just soccer.

When you have been relegated and come back up, like Burnley have, that kind of experience matters. If the club has not had to do a complete reset, then you have players and staff who have tasted it before and now get a second chance, but with a different set of eyes. Some of that naivete disappears.

Some people originally said that Burnley got promoted a year too early; that the squad wasn’t quite ready. But now, even with manager Vincent Kompany gone and Scott Parker in, Burnley have the makings of a good young side. They have learned lessons from being relegated, from going back to the Championship and from earning promotion again. The gap between expectation and reality is smaller now; that’s a big difference.

When you come up for the first time, you can say all the right things, but you think in a different way. That’s when the Premier League experience hits you. If you’re not a winning team — if you’re down at the bottom fighting relegation — those are tough seasons. For a long time, you can’t even figure out why you’re down there.

That’s why getting that first win is so important. The longer it takes, the more pressure builds — on individuals, on the collective, on the club. If you get to week four, five, six and you haven’t won, a little gap starts to form. You’re already chasing. But if you win that first game, it feels euphoric. It sets you up and buys you time to get things right. Lose, and everything gets overanalyzed. It gets tricky.

The Premier League brings a different kind of pressure. The attention is massive, but even that’s nuanced. If you are a promoted team that isn’t doing well, the general narrative is that nobody really cares. Ask most fans who the starting XIs were for the three relegated teams this past season and they probably couldn’t tell you. Maybe one or two standout names, but that’s it.

That’s why the experienced players, the ones who do well, lead by example. They don’t get too high or too low. If you go over the top with every big moment or loss — and when you’re at the bottom, there are a lot of losses — at what point do you snap? The best players understand the game. They listen to the manager, but they also know how to manage the game itself.

But while some experienced players can thrive when given a second chance, promotion can also be bittersweet. You have helped the team get there, but then you get replaced. Some players see it coming — maybe they’re older, maybe the club haven’t offered a new contract. Some have a real feel for it. But others get blindsided and it’s tough.

In my experience, you have to try to have the right attitude; You can’t become the problem in what is a positive environment after promotion. Sometimes in soccer you don’t necessarily always get what you think you deserve. You work hard, try to earn your chance. And if not, you have a tough decision to make.

It’s a fine balance if you find yourself out of the team after being promoted. You always have to be careful with that and try to prove the manager wrong. If you have helped a team get promoted and the next season you’re not really playing, you have to try to keep the right mentality. Maybe a change will come if the manager loses their job? Or if they don’t, maybe you go and try to find first-team minutes somewhere else? At the heart of it, you can still recognize that you helped the club get into the Premier League.

So, who stays up this season? That’s the big question. But maybe we’re asking it the wrong way. Instead of looking at the three promoted teams, we should ask: Who are they going to be better than?

Think about the past few seasons. Who were the fourth-worst teams? Everton? Wolves? Maybe one more. But those teams are established. They have players who have been in the league for years; some are internationals. Even in a bad season, they get 40 points. For a promoted team to stay up, they need to hit 35, 36, maybe 40. Which feels like a lot doesn’t it?

So who’s going to get fewer than 35 points? Brentford, maybe, after losing their manager Thomas Frank and some key players? West Ham? But would you bet on them getting fewer than 35? Probably not.

That’s the challenge. The promoted teams need to find a way to get to 40 points. And typically, the ones who do that are the ones who have been there before. That’s why I would lean more toward Leeds or Burnley staying up over Sunderland right now even after their exciting summer spending spree. You probably need to win 10 to 12 games. And do I think that Sunderland can do that at this moment in time? Probably not. (But as a former Sunderland player, I’m hoping I’m wrong.)

The Leeds and Burnley squads have a sprinkling of experienced players. They know what’s coming, and this time around it’s probably going to be a bit more gritty than pretty. To stay in the Premier League, they know that they need to be up for a fight and be ready to show their quality in the biggest moments.