Predictions, X factors for the 2025 PLL quarterfinals


The 2025 Premier Lacrosse League playoffs are here! The field of six clubs will be down to four by the end of the weekend, with the quarterfinals set to take place at TCO Stadium in Minneapolis.

First up is the Eastern matchup between the Philadelphia Waterdogs and the Maryland Whipsnakes at 6 p.m. ET. At 8:30 p.m., it’s time for a Western showdown between the Carolina Chaos and California Redwoods.

The winner of the Waterdogs-Whipsnakes matchup takes on the New York Atlas in the semifinals, while the Chaos-Redwoods victor squares off against the Denver Outlaws in the next round.

Quint Kessenich and Paul Carcaterra have studied the matchups in depth, and they identify the X factors in each game along with their predictions on who will advance.


Philadelphia Waterdogs vs. Maryland Whipsnakes

Saturday | 6 p.m. | ESPN

X factors

Carcaterra: I’m going with CJ Kirst. The first overall pick in the draft out of Cornell was sidelined by a hand injury for more than half of the regular season. In his first two games of the year, he finished with one total point.

But Kirst has been on fire the last two games, averaging six points per contest. The all-time leading scorer in the history of D1 lacrosse looked unstoppable at times in the last weekend of the PLL season up in Boston. He is the complete package, and will be a nightmare cover for the Whips in Minneapolis!

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0:42

Philly’s CJ Kirst nets an unbelievable behind-the-back goal

Philly Waterdogs attackman CJ Kirst scores a must-see goal against the New York Atlas.

Kessenich: Brad Smith can be an X factor for the Whipsnakes because he has a dangerous two-point shot from range, especially with his feet set. Philadelphia goalie Dillon Ward has been vulnerable to giving up outside bombs this year. I expect Smith to probe from distance, especially on the power play.


Predictions

Carcaterra: What type of game will we see in the quarters? In the first contest between these teams in Week 2, they combined for 28 goals in the Waterdogs’ win. When the Whips won in Week 8, the teams tallied a total of 17 goals.

I think this game will be won with offense, and Philly can score now that Kirst is in a groove; just ask the Atlas, as they survived to get a win in Week 11, but allowed 19 goals!

Kirst and Michael Sowers, who will be a finalist for league MVP have the potential to be the scariest duo in the league. I say Philly advances to the semis.

Kessenich: It’s hard for me to trust Philadelphia or Maryland, as both teams have been wildly inconsistent this summer.

Philadelphia has an advantage with their offense — Michael Sowers and CJ Kirst plus a bunch of midfielders who have won PLL championships — but Maryland might have the edge between the pipes as Philadelphia’s goaltending has been erratic this summer. The Whipsnakes definitely have an advantage facing off with Joe Nardella, so I give them a slight edge here.


Carolina Chaos vs. California Redwoods

Saturday | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN

X factors

Carcaterra: It’s Jackson Eicher for me. The undrafted rookie out of West Point has been a scoring force this season, leading the Chaos in points (28), and finishing third among rookies in scoring as well. He uses his 6-4, 220-pound frame to his advantage, often times owning one-on-one matchups. What’s impressed me with Eicher is he has range as a shooter, and is never shy to pull the trigger in big spots — he scored the game-winning goal against Philly in Week 9.

Kessenich: Two X factors in this game will be catalyst midfielders Andrew McAdorey (Redwoods) and Ross Scott (Chaos). McAdorey is an explosive rookie from Duke who can attack his matchup from a variety of offensive landmarks. He usually draws a double team, and can be a party starter in a game where Chris Kavanagh and Dylan Molloy might be tied up.

Scott played attack at Rutgers and hails from Portland, Oregon. He might be the fastest player in the league in a short 10-yard sprint, and breaks ankles with sudden direction change. If Scott has success, Jackson Eicher and Carolina’s set-down shooters will feast on California goalie Chayse Ierlan.

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1:14

Chaos clinch playoff spot with win over Outlaws

The Chaos complete another comeback and clinch a playoff spot with their win over the Outlaws.


Predictions

Carcaterra: California has the league’s leading goal scorer in Dylan Molloy, and the second-leading goal scorer in rookie Chris Kavanagh. That one-two punch on the right side has been lethal all season and driving defenses nuts.

However, the Chaos are the most battle-tested, veteran defense in the league, led by the best big-game goalie in the world in Blaze Riorden. Defenders Jack Rowlett, Jarrod Neumann, and Troy Reh will be able to contain the Redwoods’ offense and force others outside of Kavanagh and Molloy to beat them.

These two teams split in the regular season, but Eicher and the less-heralded offense backed by a playoff-tested defense help Carolina get the win.

Kessenich: I agree that Carolina has a clear and significant advantage in the goaltender position with Blaze Riorden taking on Chayse Ierlan. Blaze has won championships and is the best clutch goalie in the league with a sparkling fourth-quarter save percentage. Meanwhile, Ierlan is prone to sub-50% save percentage games, and if he doesn’t reach that number, California has no shot to win this game. I’ll take Carolina.



#Predictions #factors #PLL #quarterfinals

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