Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty, creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which, if you have Yahoo Fantasy Plus, you’ll notice is now available as an option to help you manage your teams. Every Friday, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

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Last week in this space, we nailed big games from Daniel Jones and Chase Brown, and you were probably happy to avoid most Lions and Terry McLaurin. James Conner didn’t quite get the workload I expected, but that’s the nature of these things. We’re dealing with probabilities, and that necessitates some occasional “losers.” But when following a strong, quantitative process like using THE BLITZ, you’ll come out ahead more than you lose. On to Week 2 …

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Geno Smith (and Jakobi Meyers), Las Vegas Raiders

Daniel Jones worked out nicely last week, so let’s try this again with Geno Smith. Projecting as QB11 on the week, he doesn’t profile quite as well as Jones did, but he’s still very likely to be the best streamer available on your waiver wire (I’m looking at you, Brock Purdy managers). Despite expecting Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly to come out running, the Raiders were quietly the third-most pass-heavy team (neutralizing for context) in Week 1. We may look back at that as a 1-week blip, but even a single week of that magnitude is enough to bump their projection from “run-heavy” to “neutral” going forward. The Raiders have an underrated receiving corps, starting with Jakobi Meyers, on top of Smith being one of the most underrated QBs in the game himself. And the best news: Like Jones last week, Smith will get his first taste of an indoor home game this week after spending his career in open-air stadiums.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

This one may seem slightly counterintuitive at first, given that the 49ers were already without Brandon Aiyuk and this week will be missing George Kittle, Jauan Jennings (possibly) and QB Brock Purdy. They signed Kendrick Bourne, but it sounds like he won’t be able to integrate into the offense quickly enough for this week. You may be questioning whether this offense will even be able to function enough to support a fantasy-relevant receiver. But one man (or, in this case, four mens’) loss is another man’s gain, as the 49ers missing so many of their stars should leave Pearsall to soak up plenty of targets.

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A team losing its starting QB is never a good thing, but it’s not as bad as you think. Mac Jones (reputation notwithstanding) is one of the best backup QBs in the league, and the drop from 7-point favorites down to 3-point favorites increases the chances San Fran will need to stick with the pass deeper into the game instead of running the ball, as is usually their desired (and available) route. That’s especially valuable in a game that projects as the fastest-paced of the week due to the quick speed at which New Orleans runs their offense. The 49ers project to run more plays than all other 31 teams this week, and while they’ll likely try to make many of them runs, the pass game should flow through Pearsall. He may have more opportunity in this game than he’ll see the rest of the year, and THE BLITZ projects him as WR29, firmly startable even in 10-team leagues.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

I am the furthest thing from a Derrick Henry truther, far too stubbornly sticking to my “He can’t actually be this good” prior for far too long. But even I can admit when a matchup is this good. THE BLITZ projected Henry as the RB12 in PPR formats coming into the year, but he’s up in the top five this week. As 11.5-point favorites, the Ravens have the best game script of the week for running backs. And we saw last year that when the Ravens are playing from ahead, Henry is even more involved in the offense than usual.

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In 11 similar games, Henry averaged a 71% carry share and ran a route on 39% of dropbacks. In six games playing from behind, those figures drop to 63% and 28%. Sure, there is the risk that the game gets too far out of hand and Henry sits for health reasons, but as big as 11.5 points is in betting terms, if the team were to actually win by 11.5 points, we’d likely see Henry well into the fourth quarter to ice the game. Plus, the Browns were the fastest-paced team in the league last season (less so in Week 1, so we’ll have to see how that develops), which could mean more play volume for a team that notoriously grinds the clock.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

I already mentioned this projects as the fastest-paced game of the week, but that’s strictly as a result of New Orleans’ pace-of-play, which Kamara gets every week. San Francisco is one of the league’s slowest-paced, and it’s possible it tries to slow it down more given all its injuries this week. This means less volume than usual for the Saints. There’s also the question mark of Kamara’s pass game role, which was largely absent in Week 1 under new coach Kellen Moore. (Kamara drew just 5% of the targets, compared to 20%+ last year). THE BLITZ saw Kamara squarely as an RB1 coming into the year, but he projects in high-end RB2 territory this week.

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D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

The Bears have the upside to be a good offense this year, but they’re still just one week into a complicated new system and face off against a Lions team hungry to bounce back. As six-point underdogs going into a dome, the run game could quickly become an afterthought this week. And while Swift can catch passes, there are six other legitimate threats in this offense that the ball will be spread between.

Then there was head coach Ben Johnson’s talk of wanting to get Kyle Monangai more involved this week, and the potential return of Roschon Johnson. Oh, and the extremely slow-paced nature of the Lions offense, likely playing keep-away from Chicago this game. All combined, THE BLITZ sees Swift as the most likely player to perform below his baseline in Week 2, dropping from RB16 rest-of-season to RB22 this week.

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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

There will be plenty of weeks to be on the Mahomes train, but this is not one of them. He was already missing Rashee Rice due to suspension, and now Xavier Worthy seems likely to miss at least a week, as does fourth-round rookie Jaylen Royals. Patriots castoff Tyquan Thornton figures to be one of Mahomes’s top four options this week, but there is a legitimate scenario later this season where Mahomes’ top options are Rice, Worthy, an acquired Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Add in Philly’s penchant for grinding clock and the second-lowest projected play count of any team this week, and THE BLITZ drops Mahomes from QB6 rest-of-season to QB11 this week.