Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour. Don’t miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three potentially big surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen picking one key matchup to watch. Finally, sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado gives her favorite bet of Week 2.

Can J.J. McCarthy find ways to beat Jessie Bates III in the Vikings’ pass game? Does Juwan Johnson have fantasy upside this week? Could James Conner have a big rushing day? And which NFC South team could pull an upset? Let’s dive in.

Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Best bet of the week

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 2 winners

Can QB Caleb Williams fix accuracy issues against the Lions?

Williams’ accuracy woes were on full display in Week 1. He recorded a 29% off-target rate and a negative-13% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), which were both the worst among all quarterbacks per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What stands out the most about Williams’ career accuracy numbers is that the problems are particularly pronounced when throwing outside the numbers. He actually is roughly average when throwing between the numbers, with a 0% CPOE since the start of last season. But outside the numbers, that drops to minus-4%. And his 28% off-target rate outside the numbers is outdone only by Colts QB Anthony Richardson Sr.

In general, this actually makes me slightly more bullish on Chicago because of Williams’ new coach. No team threw more between the numbers last season than Ben Johnson’s Lions. But facing Detroit’s defense might not be the ideal matchup. The Lions faced throws between the numbers only 46% of the time last season, the third-lowest rate in the league. We don’t yet know if the Lions will deter middle-of-the-field targets in the same way under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, but the pattern largely held Week 1 against Green Bay (41% of targets between the numbers).

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Can the Rams’ interior line hold off Titans DT Jeffery Simmons?

Injuries hit the Rams hard at guard in Week 1, with both Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson getting hurt in that game (though Avila returned in Dotson’s stead). Both are now week-to-week, and if at least one cannot play, that presumably means Beaux Limmer will step in again. Limmer played 870 snaps at center as a rookie, but his guard debut was shaky last week. He was beaten clean by Folorunso Fatukasi for a sack. The matchup will be tougher this time around against Simmons and the Titans.

Simmons ranked 10th in pass rush win rate as an interior rusher last season (12%) and eighth in Week 1 (14%). He would be a threat to QB Matthew Stafford against even the best guards, so this could be a challenging day with the Rams’ backups in there.

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Will the Texans get their running game going against the Buccaneers?

Houston’s change at offensive coordinator from Bobby Slowik to Nick Caley has meant a dramatic shift in the team’s run scheme. The Texans ran outside zone 47% of the time last season (sixth-most) and barely any duo (8%) — but the team’s duo rate jumped to a league-high 55% in Week 1 this season.

This change in scheme might not be ideal this week. Since the start of last season, the Buccaneers have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry against duo runs — third-lowest in the league. Perhaps it’s just variance due to a small sample, but it also might be a credit to the players on the defensive front under Todd Bowles (especially Vita Vea). Tampa Bay hasn’t had much turnover from last season’s defensive front (edge rusher Haason Reddick was the only major addition), so this strength should continue.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (46.1% rostered)

Tillman saw eight targets and posted 16.2 fantasy points against the Bengals in Week 1, matching wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in snaps and routes. With quarterback Joe Flacco projected for a lot of passing volume and Cleveland likely playing from behind versus Baltimore, Tillman remains firmly on the flex radar in most leagues.

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Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (37.6% rostered)

Johnson led the Saints in receiving against the Cardinals with eight receptions for 76 yards, hinting at a big role in new coach Kellen Moore’s offense. With no Taysom Hill (torn ACL) in the mix, Johnson could remain a reliable target and sneaky sleeper despite a tough 49ers matchup.

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Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (36.1% rostered)

I had Lawrence in this section last week, but he didn’t have to do much against the Panthers since the Jaguars built a huge lead and leaned heavily on running back Travis Etienne Jr. Lawrence should outperform his 10.3 fantasy points from the opener in Week 2, as the Bengals-Jaguars game is expected to be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. Jacksonville will likely rely on the passing game against Cincinnati, especially targeting wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.

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Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons (26.8% rostered)

Penix was superb in the season opener against the Buccaneers, finishing with 24.0 fantasy points. The second-year QB showed solid command of the Falcons’ offense in just his fourth career start. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney’s status is uncertain (shoulder), but Drake London is expected to play against the Vikings after leaving the Week 1 game early with his own shoulder injury. The Bears’ Caleb Williams posted 24.2 fantasy points against Minnesota’s defense, so Penix has the potential for a similar performance.

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Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (20.3% rostered)

Running back Isiah Pacheco didn’t have the Chiefs’ backfield on lockdown against the Chargers, playing just 51% of snaps and logging seven touches for 4.8 fantasy points. Hunt basically matched him with seven touches and 4.6 fantasy points in fewer snaps (38%). Hunt is capable of contributing as a runner, receiver and blocker; he can also handle short-yardage and goal-line work. Since his fantasy projection against the Eagles isn’t far off from Pacheco’s, it might be worth taking a risk on Hunt this weekend.

Solak: Don’t be surprised if …

The Bears run a trick play. There were no classic Ben Johnson whirligig plays against the Vikings (end-of-game prayer notwithstanding). But against his former team in Week 2, I would wager Johnson has something goofy planned. Nothing embarrasses a defense quite like a receiver throwing a touchdown pass to an offensive tackle (or something like that).

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The Bills score 40-plus points again. The Jets’ secondary was a mess against the Steelers — corners falling down, blown coverage assignments and missed tackles. The last time Josh Allen’s Bills played Aaron Glenn’s defense, they put 48 on the Lions. All of the man coverage Glenn likes to run is an issue against a Bills team that trusts so many receivers to win matchups and has a deadly scrambling quarterback. If Justin Fields and the Jets’ rushing attack torch Buffalo’s shaky rush defense, this one could get crazy.

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Cardinals running back James Conner leads the league in rushing this week. Including last season, the Panthers have given up over 200 rushing yards in seven straight games. Now, they face a Cardinals team with one of the more creative rushing attacks in the league. It certainly doesn’t help that their new defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton is out for the next few weeks with a hamstring injury. If the Cardinals start to mount a large lead, Conner could rack up ridiculous garbage-time production.

Bowen: Key matchup to watch

Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy vs. Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III

McCarthy can benefit from the schemed throws in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, but identifying Bates post-snap will be a critical aspect of this game. With 14 interceptions over the past three seasons, Bates has the range and ball skills to make splash plays from both post and split-field alignments.

McCarthy played his best football in the second half of the Monday night win over the Bears, completing eight of 12 attempts for two touchdown passes (not to mention his third score on a designed rushing attempt). The poise and confidence is clearly there for the second-year QB returning from knee surgery. But he will be tested by Bates in the middle of the field Sunday night.

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 at Houston Texans

Houston’s offense isn’t fully clicking yet. Against the Rams, quarterback C.J. Stroud recorded 7.0 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns to his depleted receiver room. And the team’s rebuilt offensive line gave up three sacks.

Meanwhile, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield quietly delivered enough explosive plays to wide receivers Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans to defeat the Falcons. Running back Bucky Irving flashed efficiency, too, giving this offense balance. Defensively, the Texans are solid, but takeaways were their bread and butter last season (fifth-most in the NFL with 29). Though some regression is expected, they had none in Week 1.

The Bucs’ third-down success — 50% in Week 1 — could be the difference in a possession-driven game. Tampa Bay has the healthier skill players, steadier OL and more ways to win. I’m having flashbacks to the 2023 season, when Stroud threw five touchdowns and beat the Bucs by only two points. Back Tampa.