Denny Hamlin’s aggressiveness at Kansas will likely cost his team a car in the semifinal round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

As he was fighting a car that didn’t have power steering, Hamlin washed up the track while racing Bubba Wallace for the lead on the final lap. Wallace hit the wall and Hamlin’s momentum was slowed enough that Chase Elliott snuck past to get the win and an automatic ticket to the next round of the playoffs.

Advertisement

Wallace probably needed to get the win at Kansas to advance after a bad weekend at New Hampshire. After falling to fifth, Wallace is now 26 points back of eighth heading into Sunday’s race at the Charlotte Roval (3 p.m. ET, USA).

Here’s a look at how the playoff picture stacks up heading into the final race of the Round of 12. Four drivers will be eliminated after Sunday’s race.

Already advanced

1. Ryan Blaney (win at New Hampshire)

2. Chase Elliott (win at Kansas)

Both Blaney and Elliott don’t have to worry about a single thing during the final road course race of the year. The Roval can be chaotic, especially after restarts, but the new Cup Series car has helped lead to fewer cautions. The first four races at the Roval had at least eight cautions each. Since 2022, the three Roval races have had four, seven and five cautions each.

Advertisement

Blaney and Elliott are former Roval winners, too. Blaney won the inaugural race in 2018 and Elliott scored wins in 2019 and 2020.

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

Feeling really good

3. Kyle Larson (3,124 points)

4. Denny Hamlin (3,118)

5. Christopher Bell (3,114)

6. William Byron (3,110)

An early crash or mechanical failure could derail any of these drivers’ chances of making the next round but the odds seem pretty slim. Byron has 40 points on Ross Chastain in ninth and given that lack of chaos in the current car era, it seems doubtful that any of these drivers will have any issues advancing.

Advertisement

Sweating a bit

7. Chase Briscoe (3,091)

8. Joey Logano (3,083)

Briscoe won the first Xfinity Series race at the Roval and is now in the best Cup Series equipment of his career. He should be near the front of the field for much of the day and has the benefit of watching what Logano and Chastain are doing for pit strategy. Logano was eliminated from the playoffs at the Roval a season ago but found himself back in the field after Alex Bowman’s car was disqualified for failing to meet minimum weight. Four races later, Logano was a three-time Cup Series champion.

Has a realistic chance to move up

9. Ross Chastain (3,070)

Advertisement

Chastain is the only driver who could point his way into the next round without significant misfortune for others. Making up a 13-point gap isn’t difficult in the stage racing era. However, he has just one top-10 finish in six starts.

Needs a lot to go right to make the next round

10. Bubba Wallace (3,057)

11. Tyler Reddick (3,054)

The two 23XI drivers need a lot to go wrong for the drivers ahead of them. And barring a win for one of them, it’s highly unlikely that both will make the next round of the playoffs. Reddick has the second-best average finish of any driver at the Roval (7.8) and has three top-10 finishes in five starts. Wallace has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at the track.

Advertisement

Needs to somehow beat Shane van Gisbergen for the win

12. Austin Cindric (3,035)

At 48 points back of Logano, Cindric isn’t officially in “win-and-in” territory but he might as well be. And that’s somehow easier said than done given the presence of Shane van Gisbergen.

van Gisbergen has won the last four road course races in convincing fashion and it’ll be a surprise if he doesn’t extend that streak to five. His odds to win at BetMGM are a staggering +100. After finishes outside the top 20 in his first two Roval starts, Cindric was fourth a year ago.