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Ponnaiya’s NFL predictions: Week 7 NFL player props for Jonathan Taylor, Jaxon Dart, Zach Charbonnet, and more!
Photo By – Imagn Images. Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts are off to a 5-1 start, and while new quarterback Daniel Jones is receiving plenty of praise, running back Jonathan Taylor has been the focal point of this offense.
Taylor headlines my Week 7 NFL picks as I break down the odds and share my favorite player props.
NFL Week 7 prop picks
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 7
Prop pick: Jaxson Dart Under 38.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
Jaxson Dart is off to a great start to his career, recently leading the New York Giants to an upset win against the Eagles on prime time last week. The rookie quarterback has been making plays with his feet, rushing for more than 50 yards in all three of his starts.
That said, he’s going to have a hard time finding running room against an elite Denver Broncos defense that swarms opposing QBs. The Broncos lead the NFL with 30 sacks and have allowed just 46 rushing yards on 20 carries to quarterbacks.
The Giants haven’t been calling many designed runs for Dart, with 112 of his 167 rushing yards coming on scrambles. The Broncos have also yielded just nine scrambles for 34 yards all year.
It isn’t like they’ve faced immobile QBs either, with games against Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones on Denver’s resume.
Prop pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 89.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor boasts a league-high 603 yards on 5.2 yards per pop, and he’s fresh off a 123-yard performance against Arizona. This is a lofty O/U of 89.5, but the Indianapolis Colts running back has finished with more than 95 yards in eight of his last 11 games.
This week, the two-time Pro Bowler faces a Los Angeles Chargers squad that is 26th in the league in defensive rush DVOA.
That poor run defense has been exposed in the last four weeks, with L.A. surrendering 144.8 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry.
Bolts DT Da’Shawn Hand is on the IR, and while ILB Denzel Perryman should return to the lineup, linebackers Troy Dye and Daiyan Henley are now injured.
Expect Taylor to take advantage of that banged-up linebacker group and rip off yards in the second level.
Prop pick: Zach Charbonnet Under 39.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
It’s bizarre that the Seattle Seahawks are still splitting snaps in their backfield between Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III.
Walker has rushed for 364 yards on 78 carries for 4.7 yards per carry, while Charbonnet has picked up just 156 yards on 60 rushes for a pathetic 2.6 ypa.
Charbonnet is third-last in the league in rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.9), which shows that it isn’t just blocking that’s been the issue. He’s coming off an ugly performance against the Jaguars, where he rushed for just 24 yards on 12 carries.
This week, Charbonnet and the Seahawks go up against a stout Houston Texans defense. Houston is holding opposing running backs to 77.8 rushing yards per game on just 3.8 yards per carry — the seventh-best number in the NFL.
If the Seahawks want to get their ground game going, they need to limit Charbonnet’s touches in favor of Walker.
Prop pick: Alvin Kamara Over 46.5 rushing yards
-114 at FanDuel
Despite being hindered by an ankle injury in practice, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara will suit up on Sunday.
The Pro Bowl running back has been playing through the injury, and despite trade rumors swirling around him, he remains committed to the Saints.
Kamara was limited to 31 yards on 10 carries against the Patriots’ stingy run defense last week, but he has a much easier matchup in Week 7. The Saints will face a Chicago Bears squad that is 22nd in the league in defensive rush DVOA and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (156.4).
NOLA’s veteran back is averaging a modest 3.8 yards per rush this year, but even with that subpar efficiency, Kamara should get enough carries to eclipse this rushing total.
Prop pick: Mason Taylor Over 40.5 receiving yards
-114 at FanDuel
New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor has emerged as one of the few receiving threats on their roster. Taylor is the son of former Dolphins star DE Jason Taylor, and he was selected in the second round after a productive career at LSU.
The rookie broke out with five catches for 65 yards in Week 4, before logging nine receptions for 67 yards in Week 5. Taylor was limited to just a single catch against Denver last week, but that was due to a horrific performance from Jets quarterback Justin Fields, who had just 45 passing yards.
While the Broncos are one of the best teams in the league at defending tight ends, the Carolina Panthers are the worst. The Panthers allow a league-high 74.0 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends while ranking last in DVOA against the position.
With New York’s No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson sidelined by a knee injury, expect Taylor to see more targets on Sunday.
NFL Week 7 prop betting card
- Dart u38.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Taylor o89.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Charbonnet u39.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Kamara o46.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Taylor o40.5 receiving yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 13-12 this season for -0.22 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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