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From a math perspective, some combination of Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard would seem to be Houston’s likeliest options for outgoing salary in a Kevin Durant deal.
The Houston Rockets are reportedly very interested in a trade for Phoenix Suns superstar Kevin Durant. However, the 15-time NBA All-Star will make nearly $55 million in salary next season.
So, to make any deal work under the league’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the Rockets will need to send out close to that much in outgoing salary.
Between Jock Landale and Aaron Holiday, the Rockets do have a combined $13 million in expiring salaries that they could easily trade out, if their 2025-26 contracts are picked up. Both are relatively inessential to Houston’s longer-term plans, since neither was a permanent rotation player for the 2024-25 group that finished with the No. 2 record (52-30) in the Western Conference.
But that still leaves at least $35 million or so that will need to go out, in order for a deal to work. And because Phoenix is projected to be above the NBA’s first apron threshold for team salary, the Suns likely cannot accept a signed-and-traded player to bridge the financial gap.
So, to approach that financial ballpark, here is a look at Houston’s players who will make at least $10 million in salary next season:
- Fred VanVleet: $44.9-million team option
- Dillon Brooks: $22.1 million
- Jalen Green: $33.3 million
- Alperen Sengun: $33.9 million
- Jabari Smith Jr.: $12.4 million
- Reed Sheppard: $10.6 million
Considering that Durant turns 37 years old later this year, it’s probably unrealistic to expect the Rockets to dangle Sengun, a 22-year-old All-Star. And all indications are that Houston plans on keeping VanVleet in any win-now scenarios, which a move for Durant would be.
So, that leaves Green, Smith, Brooks, and Sheppard as perhaps Houston’s most movable assets that make salaries of significance.
The Rockets also have future draft capital that could be made available, including several first-round assets from Phoenix, but those mostly do not count for salary purposes. The lone exception would be the 2025 selection at No. 10 overall, should a deal be finalized later in the offseason, but that rookie-scale deal carries a starting salary of only $6.0 million.
So, even if the 2025 pick is included after the June 25 first round and a subsequent deal signing, draft choices won’t move the CBA needle much. They might drive down the asset cost for the player(s) component, but the Rockets would still need to send out sufficient salaries.
With all that in mind, Houston could get close to meeting the outgoing salary requirements by including either Green or a combination of Brooks — a good veteran role player, but one lacking upside at 29 years old — and Smith or Sheppard. To that end, there have been some recent tidbits that Green and Smith could be of interest to Phoenix.
“If the Rockets were to get involved in this, I think Jalen Green’s name would be involved,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said Wednesday.
“Jabari is a name that I’ve heard around the league… for a team like Phoenix, they like Jabari, and that goes back to the whole Kevin Durant thing,” The Athletic’s Kelly Iko said on the Rockets Collective podcast.
ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks included Brooks and Sheppard (along with salary fillers and draft compensation) in his hypothetical deal. However, despite being used only sparingly in his 2024-25 rookie season, recent indications are that Houston remains very bullish on Sheppard’s long-term future.
Durant is an elite shooter, having averaged 26.6 points per game last season on 52.7% shooting and 43.0% from 3-point range. He’s also a 6-foot-11 forward, which would conceivably allow him to absorb minutes that had been going to Brooks and Smith (who are both forwards) or Green (Houston’s leading scorer and starter at shooting guard).
Then again, Durant is 36, and Smith and Green are 22 and 23, respectively. So, there’s certainly an argument in favor of sticking with the longer time window and trusting a talented young prospect — which Green and Smith both are — to improve more with time.
The bottom line: If Sengun and VanVleet are off the table, a Rockets-Durant deal likely needs to start with one of these two frameworks:
- 1.) Green
- 2.) Brooks and a second double-digit-million salary from the above list
In theory, Houston could try expanding the deal to three or more teams and sign-and-trade one or more of its pending free agents — such as Jeff Green or Jae’Sean Tate — to another team with a trade exception or space beneath the 2025-26 salary cap. But because those players weren’t rotation fixtures for the Rockets last season, they likely won’t be in line to attract salaries of significance.
So, from Houston’s perspective, the salary it needs to send out in a multi-team Durant deal would be similar to the two-team financial framework.
In the end, it likely comes down to whether general manager Rafael Stone and head coach Ime Udoka view Houston as close enough to true title contention to warrant a short-term Durant stimulus, relative to the longer-term age gap and asset cost of such a deal.
Other factors include the exact asking price from the Suns and what Durant’s desired contract extension terms would be. Because his current deal expires after next season, any team trading assets for Durant would likely want to ensure that he’s around for more than one season.
Stay tuned!
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