As America marks the anniversary of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 on June 17, American Apparel & Footwear Association president and chief executive officer Steve Lamar is worried the U.S. government’s current tariff stance may mean history will repeat itself.

“We can learn a lot of lessons from this history and how it relates to what’s going on right now,” Lamar told FN in an interview. “The outcome of the past and our current situation is the same – when broad tariffs are imposed across the board on a wide variety of products, they are met with retaliatory tariffs in some cases. This brings further concerns about the impact this is going to have on the economy – both the U.S. economy and the global economy.”

The 95-year-old Act, which raised tariffs for more than 20,000 imported goods and was largely credited for extending the Great Depression, led to a worldwide recession that began in Europe, but eventually spread to the U.S.

And while most industries have seen tariffs eliminated or reduced over time, apparel and footwear are still hit with rates set almost exactly 95 years ago under the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Lamar said that it’s important to reflect on the economic consequences of the Act. “These tariffs still exist that were enacted 95 years ago to protect an industry that, in effect, no longer exists here,” he said. “Domestic apparel and footwear manufacturing has largely left the country, which also illustrates how a tariff war no longer works and only serves as an additional cost that is imposed on the supply chains and end consumers.”

The AAFA exec noted that these outdated rates mean that even though apparel and footwear make up just 5 percent of U.S. imports, it accounts for over 25 percent of all tariff revenue. “When new tariffs are added, they’re compounding an already regressive and outdated system,” he said. “According to our latest stats reports that we posted this week, the average U.S. footwear import duty rate was 12.25 percent in 2024 – five times the average duty-rate paid on most other U.S. imports.”

Another interesting fact Lamar shared was that tariff rates collected per container in May 2025 are well over three times higher than they were in May of 2024, up to $10,851 versus $3,288 the same time last year. This is based on data AAFA assessed from the Daily Treasury Statement – Customs Duty Receipts and container data from logistics company Descartes.

Right now, Lamar said that there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the China “deal” at 55 percent and what that will mean for brands plus American families, especially as they get ready for back-to-school shopping for essentials and the holiday season.

“Every product that’s being shipped for back-to-school is either facing an additional 30 percent or an additional 10 percent compared to what it was facing last year,” Lamar said. “So, there’s no question, the supply chains are subject to higher tariffs, and at some point, that’s going to begin to show up in the form of other dynamics. Whether it’s pricing or other things, as the supply chains begin to pass those costs along the consumers.”

As for when this price transfer will occur, the jury is still out. “When consumers can expect to see higher apparel and shoe prices remains to be seen,” Lamar said. “Every company makes those decisions on their own, as they should. But what is happening, though, is consumers have started to go out a lot earlier and are already buying back-to-school goods. So we expect the shopping season to extend a bit like the holiday season has since the pandemic.”

Bottom line, there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and the China deal in August.

“We want to know if those longer-term inflationary trends will happen if these tariffs remain in place or escalate? Will they happen at all? A lot of these questions remain,” Lamar added. “We won’t know the answer until towards the end of summer when these deadlines pass.”