LONDON – Since the pandemic ended, ultra high-net-worth customers has been the driving force behind luxury sales as the less-affluent, aspirational shoppers have put the brakes on spending.  

But the enthusiasm of those high-net-worth individuals may be waning, according to a report by Bernstein based on a survey by Agility Research and Strategy, a consulting firm that focuses on the habits of high-net-worth individuals, or HNWI.

This will be a blow for the luxury groups and retailers which have been courting the HNWI cohort for years with special trips, events and “money-can’t-buy” experiences as overall luxury spending has slowed.

Bernstein said macroeconomic uncertainty has started to “weigh on the spending intentions” of the high-net-worth group, with global economic uncertainty lingering amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy, and the yoyo-ing financial markets.

Agility’s data, it added, shows a “sharp deterioration” in luxury spending intention amongst the wealthiest consumers, and across income groups, in the first half of the current year.

“Notably, HNWI panellists are now less optimistic than ‘affluent,’ or less wealthy peers, a contrast to prior surveys where they were consistently above. We would expect this to translate to slower luxury spending growth in the near-term,” Bernstein said.

By geography, Bernstein said that U.S. consumers seem to be the hardest hit.

“HNWI panellists are now skewed towards a pessimistic outlook in aggregate. Other consumer sentiment surveys in the U.S. similarly suggest that the cushion of optimism that had buoyed the most affluent over 2024 has now largely deflated.”

As reported, the latest Saks Global Luxury Pulse survey shows that consumers’ optimism about the U.S. economy is in decline, driven by economic uncertainty and market volatility. According to Saks, America’s affluent have been affected by market volatility, flip-flopping tariffs, and the prospect of a recession, which is impacting their spending on luxury.

According to the Bernstein report, Chinese customers are opting for expensive jewelry over ready-to-wear, and have generally become more discerning shoppers.

It added that the share of Agility’s interviewees in China who intend to purchase jewelry in the next 12 months has increased consistently since 2023, even as interest in fashion and rtw fell. Demand for handbags seems to have stabilized, the report said.

Despite the decline in spend among the rich, there is an upside for the brands, and for some consumers who’ve been waiting for years to get their hands on a Birkin, a Ferrari Purosangue SUV or a Rolex Daytona.

Bernstein said that slowing demand will likely result in shrinking waiting lists. “Luxury — even in the ultra-high-end — is still cyclical. Brands like Hermès, Ferrari and Rolex “bank excess demand when times are good and draw on them when times are tougher.”

The brands have been bracing themselves for harder times, according to Bernstein.

Hermès has already “balanced leather inventories” to a lower level of demand growth, particularly in Asia. In addition, first-half auction prices for smaller handbag models such as the Birkin and Kelly 25 have settled at around 1.8 times that of their retail price.

The 1.8 figure is “slightly higher” than in 2020, but below peak pandemic multiples of double, or triple, the retail price.

The price of larger models such as the Birkin 30 or the Kelly 28 have slipped further, reflecting a structural shift towards smaller handbags, although they’re still hovering around 1.3 times the retail price.

At Hermès, demand continues to exceed supply, while the company has also started to move beyond leather to build rtw and jewelry into “standalone engines for future growth,” Bernstein said.