Amid all the economic uncertainty, political divisiveness and global conflicts, retailers have something to look forward to — a decent back-to-school season this year.

At least that’s the outlook from Coresight Research, which estimates that total U.S. back-to-school spending will increase by 3.3 percent year-over-year to $33.3 billion.

“The market’s upward momentum reflects continued consumer demand for tech-enabled learning tools and a focus on apparel and supply readiness for the academic year, as well as inflationary impacts,” a Coresight representative told WWD.

Coresight, a research and advisory firm focused on retail and technology, consumer trends, and market dynamics, characterizes bts 2025 as a season of “measured optimism.”

Coresight’s findings are based on two online surveys of U.S. respondents aged 18 or older who have at least one child ages 5 to 17 and indicated their children would be attending school or be home schooled in the coming school year. The latest survey was conducted on June 5, with 500 individuals, and the first survey was done on May 29, 2024. In both cases, all respondents said they were shopping for bts products.

Sixty-two percent of those surveyed indicated they would start their bts shopping before August, compared to 53.9 percent in 2024. August and early September in years past have been when the bulk of bts shopping occurs and retailers ramp up their marketing. But this year, according to Coresight, concerns over potential tariffs are likely encouraging shoppers to make bts purchases sooner than usual.

Mass merchandisers such as Target and Walmart, retailers with diversified sourcing and agile supply chains such as Amazon, and off-price or dollar stores such as Dollar General and Ross Stores are well-positioned to win wallet share in 2025, Coresight indicated in its bts report. Such stores offer “stable pricing, broad assortments, and value-focused options that help consumers navigate tariff-driven inflation,” Coresight reported.

“Bts 2025 is shaping up to be a season of measured optimism — consumers are prepared to spend more but remain focused on value amid broader economic pressures,” Coresight stated. “Most shoppers expect to exceed last year’s spending, but inflation, tariffs and supply chain uncertainty continue to weigh on purchase decisions. These concerns are driving behavioral shifts, with many consumers planning to start shopping earlier, explore secondhand options, or adjust where and how they shop in response to higher prices and potential product shortages.

“Despite price sensitivity, shoppers are entering the season with a stronger sense of financial control than last year, which presents opportunity for retailers to drive spending through attractive deals or private labels.”

The June survey found that 67 percent of U.S. consumers have recently noticed price rises at retail. “With inflation still very much on the minds of consumers, nearly seven in 10 respondents in our bts survey indicated that inflation will limit how much they buy/spend this bts season,” Coresight reported.

Among Coresight’s other survey conclusions: