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Alan Jouban thinks Max Holloway coming off his first knockout loss will play a factor in his trilogy bout vs. Dustin Poirier.
Holloway (26-8 MMA, 22-8 UFC) defends his BMF title against Poirier (30-9 MMA, 22-8 UFC) in the UFC 318 main event on July 19 at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans (ESPN+ pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) in what will be Poirier’s final fight.
Despite losing their first two fights, Holloway is a very slight favorite over Poirier.
“This is the biggest opportunity Max Holloway will ever have to beat Dustin not only because it’s the last fight, but because this is the oldest Dustin Poirier, obviously, that he’s ever fought,” Jouban told MMA Junkie. “Dustin Poirier is now one step out of the door, one foot out the door, and is older in age. Could he have lost a bit of a step in his game and explosiveness and all those things? Yes. That’s a real possibility. That’s why the oddsmakers have Dustin as a small underdog right now.”
Poirier came close to knocking Holloway down in their rematch for the interim lightweight title at UFC 236, but ultimately won a unanimous decision in an all-out war. In his most recent outing, Holloway was knocked out for the first time in his career by Ilia Topuria at UFC 308.
“Max Holloway is still somewhat in the prime time of his career,” Jouban said. “Dustin Poirier has passed that. But what they’re not taking into account that much is Max Holloway is a guy that was never knocked down in his career, and he just got knocked out very badly. Once that happens, I can tell you from experience, once you’ve been KO’d and TKO’d, your chin is never quite the same. How well does Max absorb those shots in this matchup? He’s always been able to absorb them and wear damage really well. He doesn’t really get buzzed or rocked, and that’s why he has those dogfights in there.
“How well does Max Holloway absorb those shots after not only being knocked down, but knocked out? How well does Poirier absorb these shots at this point? I still lean toward him more so than the younger Max because once that light goes out in your brain, the off switch happens a lot easier. I think Dustin has the opportunity where maybe he hits Max with a couple shots. I don’t think he puts him out, I think it goes to decision, but maybe we see Max a little bit wobbled or buzzed where we haven’t seen before in other fights.”
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