Just what state is Australian rugby in ahead of the three-Test showdown against the British and Irish Lions?

After a ruinous World Cup campaign and Eddie Jones’ acrimonious exit, shoots of recovery took hold in the autumn, but the Wallabies progress remains on a knife edge, with the Lions able to send them crashing back to the canvas with a Test series whitewash.

As we wait to see whether it’s redemption and a return to rugby’s top table for Australia, we analyse why this Lions series could prove one for the ages for the Wallabies…

Schmidt’s smarts could be lethal to Lions

Australia’s strongest weapon might not be on the pitch but in the stands.

Head coach Joe Schmidt, a seasoned operator on the international stage, brings a rugby intellect few can match. His ability to exploit opposition weaknesses and his experience in the game’s biggest roles could prove pivotal against a freshly assembled Lions side in the heat of the Test match arena.

Former Australia international Matt Burke believes Schmidt will have a trick or two up his sleeve, transforming the Wallabies from a defensively passive outfit into one that confronts the Lions head-on.

“It’s about speed and execution and understanding what pressure is,” Burke, a 2001 Lions series winner with 81 Wallabies caps, told Sky Sports.

“When you are playing at this level, pressure is time and space. You’ve got to be able to pick your moments, and there are very few in Test matches with the defensive systems in play at the moment, it’s tough finding space. To be able to manipulate those areas is going to be a real key feature in how the Wallabies will play.

“Interestingly, when they played Fiji, they were very passive in defence, they let the Fijians run at them. I expect there to be a big change in that space, I expect them to go hard at the Lions just like the Waratahs did and take the space away and not allow the Lions to play.”

Feel-good factor returning?

Australian rugby has been on a long road to recovery since a disastrous 2023 Rugby World Cup, where a first loss to Fiji in 69 years saw the Wallabies suffer a pool-stage exit for the first time ever.

Burke, a World Cup winner in 1999, believes the intervening years have been put to good use, with the Wallabies reconnecting with the Australian public under the tutelage of Schmidt.

“There’s a lot of joy, a lot of upbeat chat around rugby at the moment,” Burke said. “Joe Schmidt has picked a very good squad for this Lions series.

“They had the hit-out against Fiji last week that was always going to be difficult – you’ve got to get those chinks out of the armour, so to speak.

“And people are supporting; there is a sea of red out here at the moment, but there is great support in green and gold.”

Super Rugby shoots of recovery

The foundations for Australia’s revival as a leading rugby nation have been forged in the domestic club game.

Nine members of the Wallabies squad were part of the ACT Brumbies squad that finished third in 2025 Super Rugby Pacific – a season that saw a clear upward trend in the performances of Australian franchises.

The Lions have proven too strong for Western Force, Queensland Reds, the Waratahs, and the Brumbies in their warm-up games, but the tourists have certainly not had things all their own way, having overcome increasingly difficult obstacles and challenges.

“Super Rugby Pacific has been really good this year,” Burke added. “Two Kiwi teams contested the final, but the Australian teams competed and competed well.”

Suaalii a series away from stardom

The Australia squad tasked with taming the Lions may look inferior on paper compared to the star-studded tourists assembled from four nations – but in Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, the Wallabies have a potential superstar to rival any player in world rugby, let alone the Lions.

A former NRL prodigy, Suaalii switched back to rugby union in 2023, and his rise has been as meteoric as it has been remarkable.

Despite having no Super Rugby experience at the time, he was thrust into the Test arena last November – delivering a Player of the Match performance on debut in Australia’s 42-37 victory over England at Twickenham.

Suaalii’s Autumn Nations Series baptism of fire saw him face off against opponents such as Sione Tuipulotu and Bundee Aki – players now wearing red in the Lions camp.

Since then, not even injury has been able to halt the 21-year-old’s upward trajectory. After an eye-catching rookie season with the NSW Waratahs, he earned a place in the Super Rugby Team of the Season and has emerged as a central figure in Schmidt’s Wallabies setup.

Now fully recovered from a fractured jaw suffered earlier in the year, Suaalii is set to be unleashed in the Lions series. With sporting immortality up for grabs, he could provide the X-factor Australia has been desperately craving.

‘O’Connor brings confidence and belief’

Australia’s hopes of toppling the Lions were dented by the loss of first-choice fly-half Noah Lolesio after he underwent neck surgery 11 days out from the start of the Test series.

James O’Connor got the nod as Lolesio’s replacement, with the veteran set to make his first appearance for the Wallabies in three years and form an experienced core to balance the squad’s youthful edge.

Alongside prop James Slipper, O’Connor is one of just two players in the Australia squad with Test match experience against the Lions, having scored the Wallabies’ only try in the deciding match of the 2013 series.

Former Lions fly-half Dan Biggar believes O’Connor, who recently helped guide the Crusaders to the Super Rugby title, could be a game-changing asset for Schmidt’s side.

“You look at the two squads and they are not a million miles apart,” two-time Lions fly-half Biggar told Sky Sports. “The one area we’ve highlighted a little gulf in class is at half-back, with Jamison Gibson-Park and Finn Russell.

“With James O’Connor coming back in, while he isn’t a Test 10 in the sense that Owen Farrell is a Test match animal, he does bring experience, he brings know-how, he’s been there, seen it, worn the t-shirt countless times.

“He knows the squad, knows the players, and off the back of winning Super Rugby with the Crusaders, he will bring a bit of confidence and belief to the Wallabies.”

The British and Irish Lions face Australia in the first Test of the series this Saturday – you can watch every game exclusively live on Sky Sports or stream with NOW.

After opening their tour with defeat to Argentina in Dublin, Andy Farrell’s squad have since claimed five consecutive victories in Australia against Western Force, Queensland Reds, NSW Waratahs, ACT Brumbies and an AUNZ Invitational XV.

This Saturday, the Lions play Australia in the highly-anticipated opening Test, live on Sky Sports Action – rebranded Sky Sports The Lions – and Sky Sports Main Event from 10am (11am kick-off).

Sky Sports is the home of the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour of Australia, with every warm-up game and the entire three-Test series against the Wallabies shown exclusively live.