My favorite part of a comic book series is the villain.

To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the typical philosophies they espouse. We could have a debate about whether Thanos was right or not. But they can drive our heroes to greatness. Plus, they have the better one-liners. Heath Ledger’s Joker (“Why So Serious?”) remains at the top of my list, but I’ll go from Gotham City to Central City and give props to this Captain Cold quote from The Flash.

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“There are only four rules you need to remember: make the plan, execute the plan, expect the plan to go off the rails, throw away the plan.”

There’s nothing wrong with entering a fantasy football draft knowing which QB you want. But there might be 11 other people with the same thought. So, I’ll add a fifth rule to Leonard Snart’s list: be ready to improvise. And if you have an idea of what to look for in each phase of the draft, you won’t panic when your plan (inevitably) goes off the rails.

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Taking a QB in the Early Rounds

• Pros: Weekly upside at the highest-scoring position in fantasy football

• Cons: Sacrificing opportunity cost at WR or RB

Let me guess. You drafted Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, or Trevor Lawrence last year and got burned. Your favorite analyst (me) told you to wait, Jordan Love looked like a fine option, and then you missed the playoffs. Meanwhile, the person who autodrafted Josh Allen in the second round got to enjoy his weekly highlights.

It’s no secret. Mobile QBs are a cheat code. Ten rushing yards gets you a point. You need 25 (or 20) passing yards for the same result. So, yes, I’ll take the passer with the ability to generate fantasy production faster with his legs. And, as recent history has indicated, pocket passers have a hard time fighting for the QB1 spot without some contributions on the ground.

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• 2024: Lamar Jackson, 2nd (in QB rushing rate; designed rushes, plus scrambles)

• 2022: Patrick Mahomes, 15th

But at the same time, we have other positions to fill. We start a total of at least five players between RB and WR each week. And with bye weeks and the chaos of the season, we’ll be swapping them in and out of lineups every day. Accordingly, we need more of them. Plus, by using the results from 2024 as a proxy, we can see that the longer we wait, the harder it is to find star talent.

• Round 1: 17.6 (WR PPR PPG), 17.4 (RB PPR PPG)

I shouldn’t expect to find Ja’Marr Chase output at Courtland Sutton’s ADP. Consequently, a detour to snag a QB comes at a cost. But if your plan involves an elite QB, tiers can help get one on your roster in an optimal manner. I’ll use the regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP as examples.

• Josh Allen: 21.1 (Yahoo ADP), 22.3 (FPPG), 17.4% (Rushing Rate)

• Jalen Hurts: 33.9, 21.0, 29.5%

The “rushing QB” tier has four guys: Jayden Daniels, Jackson, Hurts, and Allen. You’d be happy with any of them. But look at the difference in draft cost between the last two. It’s a full round! So by grouping passers by archetype, I can get through the early rounds without overpaying for the type of QB I planned to draft.

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Other Early-Round Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs; Bo Nix, Broncos

Drafting a Passer in the Mid-Rounds

• Pros: Allows for building a strong core with a top-10 passer

• Cons: Potential for overvaluing the wrong traits

Let’s say there was a run on the early QBs, you timed out while trying to click on Joe Burrow, and you’re now in the middle rounds. It happens. Well, throw away your original plan and let’s improvise.

The good news is you’ve got most of a starting roster put together. Regardless of your strategy (e.g., Hero RB, Zero RB, etc.), there’s no shortage of top-12 and top-24 skill players. Swap out an RB or WR for an early-round TE and you’re cooking with gas. Even better, the opportunity cost we discussed before has less of an impact in this stretch of the draft.

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• Round 7: 13.2 (WR PPR PPG), 9.1 (RB PPR PPG)

But still, we need a quarterback. Eight are likely already off the board. And I’ll be honest. I tend to panic when thrown off my game and start to feel that slight twinge of urgency. My default is to copy and paste what I was going to do before. We prioritized rushing earlier. Let’s do it now. However, in doing so, you can fixate on a player without considering the alternatives. I’ll give you an example.

Before Jets fans come for me, I agree with the last sentence. Justin Fields still has time to turn things around. However, the lack of competition behind Fields and his history as a rusher have pushed his cost into make-or-break territory.

• 2024: 8.9 (Rushing FPPG), 2nd (amongst all starting QBs)

There’s no question about Fields’s talent as a runner. We’ve seen it in spurts over the years. But the passing production still has to be a part of his weekly floor. And let’s set aside any (potential) red flags about the passing game.

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Nevermind that, now-OC Tanner Engstrand either didn’t go with then-OC Ben Johnson to Chicago or get the vacant job in Detroit. Or, if Engstrand pulls elements from the Lions’ passing game into the Jets’ playbook (i.e., heavy play action), Fields struggled to maintain any viable level of efficiency (29th in success rate on play-action concepts on early downs). Forget all that. Fields is the guy. However, you could wait a few more rounds and find a similar guy.

• Justin Fields: 84.7 (Yahoo ADP), 9.8% (Scramble Rate), 184.3 (Passing YPG)

• Drake Maye: 121.1, 10.6%, 187.8

Of course, Maye doesn’t have the same ceiling potential. But New England’s offseason moves point to a more stable floor at a three-round discount. Regardless, I work through the same exercise I outlined in the early rounds. Contextualize a player and identify alternatives with comparable traits. Maybe you don’t like Maye. Try Kyler Murray, who might rush more this season and is a round cheaper than Fields. Either way, the result nets me a passer with rushing upside along with a strong roster.

Other Mid-Round Targets: Dak Prescott, Cowboys; Jordan Love, Packers

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Dropping in a QB from the Late Rounds

• Pros: Enables a packed roster with starters and depth

• Cons: Relies on the rest of the team to perform

Drafting a QB from the late rounds requires a walk down Narrative Street. We don’t refer to this crop of signal callers as “matchup-based starters” for no reason. Their warts are varied and numerous. Making matters worse, the season-long hit rate from last year exemplifies the minefield you enter waiting until this phase of the draft to find your guy.

• Justin Herbert: QB16 (PPG Finish)

• Kirk Cousins: QB33 (in 14 games)

• Deshaun Watson: QB40 (in 7 games)

To be fair, Bo Nix (QB23 by ADP), Maye (QB30), and Sam Darnold (QB31) also had late (read non-existent) draft costs. But for every Darnold, there was a Will Levis or Derek Carr nearby.

By and large, we can’t rely on them for the entirety of the season. Luckily, we shouldn’t need them that long. Our other starters can carry the load. By the 13th round, you should have an army of RB1s and top-12 WRs with a can’t-miss TE. All you need are pockets of production from a QB. A rundown of the early-season schedules should uncover a few options.

Yes, I know. Throwing catches to receivers running routes against air doesn’t matter. But the Jaguars adding another pass-catching option in Travis Hunter for Lawrence should. His Week 1 matchup against the Panthers, who gave up 20 or more points to opposing QBs in seven games in 2024, should matter, too. However, Lawrence isn’t the only beneficiary of a soft opener.

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Michael Penix Jr. and Bryce Young both face either weak defensive units or opposing offenses that can force up-tempo contests. And each has the surrounding cast to fight back. Accordingly, by examining the schedule throughout the preseason as we learn more about each offense, you can find the best option to lead your team into 2025.

Other Late-Round Targets: Anthony Richardson, Colts; Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins