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Why College Football History Suggests Texas Will Not Win This Year’s National Championship originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
Unprecedented energy and cautious optimism are swirling around the Texas Longhorns this preseason.
On Monday, Texas claimed the program’s first-ever No. 1 spot in the AP preseason Top 25, which comes as a surprise given the school’s history as a blueblood.
The buzz is electric, fueled by quarterback Arch Manning’s debut season as the Longhorns’ starter and a revamped defense led by some of the country’s best defenders. But history suggests that being picked first can be less a blessing and more a jinx.
Since 2000, only two preseason AP No. 1s—USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017—went on to win the national championship. That means 19 out of the last 21 failed to seal the title. If that sounds ominous, it’s worth noting that most champions—19 of the last 21—started somewhere in the top seven, so perhaps expectations land heavier at the pinnacle.
History Shows Preseason No. 1 Rarely Wins National Championship
The AP’s No. 1 spot might look like the perfect launchpad for a national title run, but recent history shows it is more often a trap than a triumph. Many in recent years have stumbled well short of the College Football Playoff, let alone a national championship.
In 2024, Georgia entered the year as the consensus No. 1 but finished outside the championship picture after a late-season slide. The year before, in 2023, Georgia again held the preseason top spot but missed the playoffs entirely after losing the SEC Championship.
Alabama opened at No. 1 in 2022 and failed to reach the CFP, settling for a Sugar Bowl win.
Clemson started the 2021 season first but slipped to 10-3, losing three of their first seven contests and was out of contention before November.
Even 2019’s Clemson team, loaded with returning stars and riding a national title high, ended the year with a lopsided loss to LSU in the championship game. That was the year of Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. In hindsight, LSU’s title run wasn’t much of a surprise.
Time and again, being the preseason favorite has meant meeting every opponent’s best shot, dealing with heightened scrutiny and facing the challenge of living up to months of offseason hype.
For Texas in 2025, that history is impossible to ignore. Opening at No. 1 for the first time in school history brings both prestige and pressure, but the numbers suggest keeping the top spot through January is far more difficult than earning it in August.
Texas Has Elite Talent But Roadblocks Ahead
Texas enters 2025 with true heavyweight status. For the first time, they rank No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches preseason polls. Their edge over Georgia in the SEC vote and Ohio State’s quarterback uncertainty helped vault them forward.
Yet mounting pressure comes with tough schedule tests. The Longhorns launch in Columbus against reigning national champion Ohio State. They have four more games against ranked opponents: at No. 15 Florida, vs. No. 18 Oklahoma, at No. 5 Georgia and vs. No. 19 Texas A&M.
To make their national championship case, the Longhorns return defensive stalwarts like preseason first-team All-American selections Michael Taaffe (safety) and Anthony Hill Jr. (linebacker) as well as Colin Simmons (pass rusher). Offensive firepower centers on Arch Manning, considered a potential No. 1 NFL pick, although that won’t come in 2026, according to family patriarch Archie Manning.
To beat the historical odds, Texas must marry talent with consistency. The national championship door isn’t closed by any means, but it requires navigating its Week 1 thriller against Ohio State and sustaining grit across the season.
Related: Major SEC Program Makes Embarrassing History After Preseason Top 25 Reveal
Related: Three Top 10 Matchups Headline Week 1 of 2025 College Football Season
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Aug 11, 2025, where it first appeared.
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