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What are the chances of the Indianapolis Colts landing one of Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland with the 14th pick in the 2025 NFL draft?
What are the chances of the Indianapolis Colts landing one of Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland with the 14th pick in the 2025 NFL draft?
Using ESPN’s NFL draft day predictor, Seth Walder attempted to forecast where a number of prospects could end up being selected, including Warren and Loveland.
But before we dive into what those chances are for the Colts, how does the Draft Day Predictor make these determinations?
“To create our Draft Day Predictor,” wrote Walder, “ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects. The accuracy of those factors in past seasons informs the model’s outputs for the upcoming draft.”
According to the Draft Day Predictor’s data, Warren’s most likely landing spot is pick No. 14. And Loveland’s? It’s pick No. 14 as well. If available, the Predictor is assuming that the Colts are going to take a tight end in the first round.
Diving further into the numbers, Walder writes that there is a 95% chance that at least one of Loveland or Warren will be available when the Colts are picking.
So if the Colts are comfortable with selecting both prospects, they may not have to consider trading up with the odds saying that at least one will be available. SI’s Albert Breer recently wrote that the Colts have been “linked” to both tight ends.
However, on the flip side of all that, ESPN’s model says there is only a 42% chance that both will be on the board when the Colts are picking. So if Indianapolis does prefer one over the other, because as Daniel Jeremiah highlighted, the skill sets of these two tight ends are fairly different, then perhaps making a move up the draft board would have to be considered.
So the good news for the Colts is that if they like both Warren and Loveland, the metrics say they likely land one of them. But the data also shows that when it comes to who they could land, that decision probably isn’t in their control, with the metrics saying one is likely to be off the board.
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