Kentucky opens the 2025 football season Saturday against Toledo. With the exception of the COVID year, this is the first time in recent memory that oddsmakers don’t believe the Cats will go bowling, setting the win total at 4.5 games.

There’s no easing into the pool, either. Toledo is a perennial Group of Five power, picked to win the MAC season. The Rockets beat Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville last season. The spread opened at 12.5 points earlier this summer; now, it’s down to 7.5 points, a sign that Toledo is legit and Kentucky has more doubters than believers going into Mark Stoops’ 13th season.

The good news is, Kentucky has a pretty good track record in season openers as of late. The Cats are 9-3 in their first game in the Stoops era; they’ve covered in five of the last six. At this point in his tenure, Stoops thinks he’s got a system down to be ready for game one.

“Coaches say this all the time, and I certainly feel like this: you try to not make the same mistake twice,” Stoops said in his press conference today. “So, things that have happened in openers before, I really try to head off and make sure we’re prepared.”

As we count down to kickoff, let’s take a trip down memory lane to look at some of those mistakes and how Kentucky has fared in the last dozen season openers.

2024: Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 0
Spread: -25.5 (Win)
Final Record: 4-8 (1-7 SEC)

Mother Nature did her best to let us know that last season wasn’t going to be good. A two-hour lightning delay postponed kickoff to 10:05 p.m., and the game had to be called due to weather in the third quarter. Regardless, Kentucky took care of business vs. Southern Miss, with Brock Vandagriff throwing three touchdowns and the defense shutting the Golden Eagles out.

2023: Kentucky 44, Ball State 14
Spread: -25 (Win)
Final Record: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)

Ray Davis and Devin Leary made the most of their Kentucky debuts, combining for three touchdowns in Kentucky’s season-opening win over Ball State in 2023. That said, the Cats trailed the Cardinals 7-3 going into the second quarter before finding their footing and scoring 20 straight points, 10 coming off two fumble recoveries.

2022: Kentucky 37, Miami (OH) 13
Spread: -16 (Win)
Final Record: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)

Kentucky only led Miami (OH) by three at halftime, 13-10, but Barion Brown returned the second-half kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Less than a minute later, Keidron Smith recovered a fumble and returned it to set up another Kentucky touchdown. From there, the Cats cruised to Mark Stoops’ 60th victory, which tied him with Bear Bryant for the most in program history.

2021: Kentucky 45, UL-Monroe 10
Spread: -29.5 (Win)
Final Record: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)

Louisiana-Monroe got on the scoreboard first, scoring a touchdown midway through the first quarter, but didn’t score again until late in the fourth quarter. Kentucky rolled in Will Levis’ debut. Levis finished with 367 yards and four touchdowns to one interception, connecting with Wan’Dale Robinson on two scores.

2020: No. 8 Auburn 29, Kentucky 13 (Away)
Spread: +7.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 5-6 (4-6 SEC)

Due to COVID, SEC teams only played each other during the 2020 regular season. Kentucky started its season at No. 8 Auburn with just students in the stands at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers only led by one at halftime, 8-7; that didn’t last. Bo Nix threw three second-half touchdowns to pull away from the Cats. Kentucky didn’t do itself any favors, turning the ball over late and botching a fake punt.

2019: Kentucky 38, Toledo 24
Spread: -10.5 (Win)
Final Record: 8-5 (3-5 SEC)

Kentucky’s last game against Toledo was closer than we would have liked until the second half. The Rockets led after the first quarter, and the teams were tied at 14 at halftime. Thankfully, the Cats took control in the third quarter, starting with a fumble recovery that set up a field goal and a 32-yard touchdown pass from Terry Wilson to Bryce Oliver. Kentucky pulled away to a 14-point win, covering the 10.5-point spread vs. Jason Candle’s Rockets.

2018: Kentucky 35, Central Michigan 20
Spread: -17.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)

This game was a mess. Kentucky turned the ball over four times in the first half and trailed Central Michigan 17-7 in the second quarter. The Cats rallied, with Gunnar Hoak coming in for an injured Terry Wilson, to throw a 24-yard touchdown pass to David Bouvier to give Kentucky a 21-20 edge at halftime. Kentucky shut the Chippewas out in the second half and outgained them on the ground 299-118.

2017: Kentucky 24, Southern Miss 17 (Away)
Spread: -9.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 7-6 (4-4 SEC)

Remember that time Kentucky played Southern Miss in Hattiesburg to open the season? That was weird. So was the game. Defense saved the day, forcing a pair of fumbles in the second half to save a struggling offense. Denzil Ware returned one for a touchdown to give Kentucky a 24-10 lead in the third quarter. Chris Westry forced another fumble in the fourth quarter, which Courtney Love recovered at midfield to help the Cats stay in control.

2016: Southern Miss 44, Kentucky 35
Spread: -3.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 7-6 (4-4 SEC)

A year prior, the Golden Eagles beat the Cats in Lexington. That was quite a shock considering Kentucky led 35-10 in the second quarter. From there, Southern Miss scored 34 unanswered points to pull off the upset. The Golden Eagles had 261 yards of offense to Kentucky’s 22 in the second half. Yikes. The next week, Kentucky lost at Florida 45-7.

2015: Kentucky 40, Louisiana-Lafayette 33
Spread: -17 (Loss)
Final Record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)

A drone crashed into Commonwealth Stadium right before kickoff of the season opener vs. Louisiana-Lafayette. Thankfully, no one was hurt, but that should have been a sign it was going to be a rough night. The Cats led by three touchdowns at one point, but almost blew the game in front of a sellout crowd at the newly remodeled stadium. Thankfully, Mikel Horton saved Kentucky from an upset with a 12-yard touchdown run with 57 seconds left. Phew.

2014: Kentucky 59, UT-Martin 14
Spread: -21.5 (Win)
Final Record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)

There were no issues in Mark Stoops’ second season opener. Patrick Towles threw for 377 yards, and the Cats’ backfield of Braylon Heard, Mikel Horton, and Jojo Kemp combined for five touchdowns on the ground to rout the Skyhawks 59-14. Kentucky finished with 656 yards of total offense, the fourth most in a game in program history at the time. The only bad part of the day was a Kentucky cheerleader getting injured during a fall with four minutes to go, and getting carted off the field.

2013: Western Kentucky 35, Kentucky 26 (Nashville)
Spread: -5.5 (Loss)
Final Record: 2-10 (0-8 SEC)

Mark Stoops’ debut as Kentucky’s coach was an ugly one. Bobby Petrino embarrassed the Cats in Nashville in his debut as Western Kentucky’s coach. The Hilltoppers outgained the Cats 487-419 in total offense and had the ball for almost 35 minutes. That wasn’t the game in which Western linebacker Andrew Jackson was captured on camera yelling, “They supposed to be SEC!” but it sure felt like it.