Big transfers often create a domino effect, as one big move can spark more. Think about how if Hugo Ekitike (or Benjamin Sesko, or João Pedro) had moved to Newcastle United, it could have potentially unlocked Alexander Isak to Liverpool; or how Alejandro Garnacho’s move to Chelsea relied on exits for Christopher Nkunku or Nicolas Jackson.

But perhaps just as crucial in shaping the market is when players renew their contract to stay at their current club. That forces whoever was chasing their signature to look elsewhere and enact a plan B — which has knock-on effects for other clubs too.

Here, we’ve tracked the major contract renewals that have happened in 2025 and charted how their ripple effects altered, and in some cases dictated, how the summer transfer window played out.

– Tighe: How players use data to show worth in contract negotiations
– Marcotti: Seven truths teams need to know about the transfer market
– O’Hanlon: Striker domino effect: How Liverpool, Chelsea, Utd net out

Feb. 4 — Alphonso Davies, LB, Bayern Munich

The first major contract renewal to set the 2025 market came in early February, as Davies surprised the world by committing to Bayern Munich for another five years. Many had assumed he would become Real Madrid’s next prestigious free transfer signing, as they had been in contact and had a pretty obvious hole at left back to fill.

The idea they might secure the Canada international in addition to Liverpool right back Trent Alexander-Arnold and revolutionize their full back corps for almost nothing felt ominous. But Davies dashed their dreams by staying in Bavaria, causing Madrid to look elsewhere.

The ripple effect: Benfica’s Álvaro Carreras then became Madrid’s chief target, and after weeks of negotiating, joined in mid-July for €60 million. The Portuguese club clearly saw this coming and were proactive in replacing Carreras, converting Samuel Dahl’s loan from Roma into a permanent deal and securing young Madrid left back Rafael Obrador as part of the Carreras move too.

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March 13 — Joshua Kimmich, RB/CM, Bayern Munich

Just over a month after Davies signed his deal with Bayern, Kimmich followed suit. The fact that the 30-year-old’s contract had run down to the final few months alerted several elite clubs, as Manchester City, Barcelona and Liverpool were all credited with an interest in picking him up for free.

But fresh terms and a four-year extension took Kimmich off the table, forcing those clubs to reconsider their options in central midfield.

The ripple effect: Neither Liverpool nor Barcelona signed an alternative deep-lying midfielder, suggesting their interest was solely opportunistic on the basis Kimmich’s contract was expiring. There’s a chance the Reds saw him as a potential replacement for Alexander-Arnold at right back but went on to sign Jeremie Frimpong from Bayer Leverkusen for €35 million instead.

City’s interest in a new midfielder was more than fleeting, though, and they eventually secured the services of AC Milan’s Tijjani Reijnders for €55 million. That in turn led to the Italians raiding Club Brugge to bring in Switzerland midfielder Ardon Jashari, who had excelled in the Champions League in 2024-25, for €37 million.

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April 10 — Mohamed Salah, FW, Liverpool

April 17 — Virgil van Dijk, CB, Liverpool

Next came the reigning Premier League champions’ turn to set the market. Alexander-Arnold might have eventually flown the nest to join Madrid, but they did manage to extend both Salah and Van Dijk’s stay at Anfield in what felt like a big win — particularly in Salah’s case.

Strong interest in the 33-year-old Egypt international had emerged from Saudi Arabia once again, with all of the PIF-owned clubs able to offer him a key role and a huge salary. Talk around Van Dijk, 34, was much quieter, but Paris Saint-Germain did reportedly scope out a possible deal in March.

In the end, both players signed two-year contract extensions.

The ripple effect: Saudi clubs looked elsewhere for attacking firepower. Al Nassr signed forward João Félix from Chelsea for around €50 million and winger Kingsley Coman from Bayern for €24 million; Al Qadsiah spent a staggering €70 million to bring in Atalanta striker Mateo Retegui; and Al Hilal turned to a different Liverpool player, Darwin Núñez, for €53 million.

That Núñez deal ruined Atlético Madrid’s plans, as they clearly wanted him, so they turned their attention to Napoli’s Giacomo Raspadori instead and landed him for a much cheaper €22 million.

With Van Dijk staying put, PSG signed Illia Zabarnyi from Bournemouth for €67 million. The Ukraine international’s exit, along with Dean Huijsen’s €59.4 million move to Real Madrid, left the Cherries woefully short of center backs, so they spent €35 million to bring in Bafodé Diakité from Lille.

July 1 — Antoine Semenyo, Bournemouth

It wasn’t all bad this summer for Bournemouth. Yes, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Milos Kerkez (Liverpool) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (Arsenal) departed, leaving them without 80% of last season’s defensive unit, but one of their attacking stars decided to stay put.

Semenyo, who provided 16 Premier League goal contributions in 2024-25, signed a new deal. It somewhat stabilized the Cherries’ attack but forced Tottenham Hotspur, who had targeted him early in the summer, to look elsewhere.

The ripple effect: Ten days later, Spurs signed Mohammed Kudus for £55 million from West Ham and, infamously, thought they had a £60 million deal secured for Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White too, even going as far as to book a medical for him. Bizarrely, the transfer did not happen; more on that later.

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July 4 — Nico Williams, Athletic Club

Easily the biggest renewal of the summer was Williams, who signed a 10-year deal to stay with Athletic Club, despite strong interest from Barcelona and Bayern Munich and the presence of a €58 million release clause in his previous contract.

Barcelona had long been obsessed with the idea of signing the Spain winger, who counts Lamine Yamal as a close friend, after the two exploded in tandem during the national team’s victorious Euro 2024 campaign. Bayern were quieter admirers but were serious about signing him to revamp their aging wing corps. And the fee seemed eminently possible.

The ripple effect: Barça’s all-too-familiar registration issues seemingly dashed Williams’ confidence in joining them. So they loaned a player whose situation was so bleak he was willing to roll the dice on being registered to play: Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford.

Barcelona were also very interested in Liverpool’s Luis Díaz, but Bayern Munich beat them to the punch and ended up paying €75 million to land the 28-year-old forward. And though he has started well in the Bundesliga, the size of the fee has generated fair concerns and questions.

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July 26 — Morgan Gibbs-White, Nottingham Forest

Aug. 18 — Cristian Romero, Tottenham Hotspur

In an alternate universe, Gibbs-White plays for Spurs now. The club activated his £60 million release clause and booked a medical, only for Forest to present a legal challenge against the way the London side had approached the deal. In the end, Spurs dropped their interest and Gibbs-White signed a short extension, to 2028.

Three weeks later, there was some better news closer to home: center back Cristian Romero, who had been heavily linked to Atlético Madrid, signed a new long-term deal and assumed the captain’s armband in the wake of Son Heung-Min’s departure to LAFC.

The ripple effect: With Romero staying put, Atlético splashed €30 million to bring in Feyenoord’s Dávid Hancko instead. Hancko was actually in advanced talks with Al Nassr at the time, but when the deal stalled, the Spanish giants swooped in. A couple of weeks later, the Saudi outfit signed Barcelona’s Iñigo Martínez to fill that gap.

And, with a few days to go in this summer’s transfer window, we’re still waiting to gauge the full ripple effect of Gibbs-White’s U-turn. With James Maddison ruled out for the majority of the season amid an ACL tear and Dejan Kulusevski struggling for fitness, Spurs need to make a signing and were extremely close to signing Crystal Palace’s Eberechi Eze for £67.5 million, before Arsenal famously gazumped them at the 11th hour, sending them back to the drawing board once again.

What followed was interest in Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers, Como’s Nico Paz and Manchester City’s Savinho. But then they agreed a €60 million deal to sign RB Leipzig midfielder Xavi Simons from under the noses of Chelsea.