Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Nine quarterbacks who went No. 1 are scheduled to start this week, but the only matchup with more than one is the somewhat forgotten Jacksonville Jaguars home game versus the Carolina Panthers. OK, so this isn’t exactly Lions-Packers or Ravens-Bills, as the Panthers and Jaguars combined for only nine wins last season, but still. They have quarterbacks that fantasy managers should consider.

Don’t be surprised if … Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young deliver top-10 fantasy outings Sunday

Let’s start with Lawrence, since he is rostered in more than 35% of ESPN standard leagues (still too low), and thus, more likely to be in fantasy lineups. The 2024 version of Lawrence wasn’t enjoying his best statistical season before the injury to his non-throwing shoulder ended things prematurely, but let’s remember he was the No. 7 fantasy QB in 2022, and he just missed the top 10 in 2023. The top 2021 pick really hasn’t been so disappointing in his career.

This season’s Jaguars are upgraded all around, with a new coaching staff, Heisman Trophy-winning WR Travis Hunter (great if he plays defense as well, but it will not hurt his WR numbers) and a better offensive line. Few seem to view Lawrence as a potential top-10 fantasy QB, even though this is who he has been. The Panthers look somewhat improved off last season’s defensive mess, but this is a positive matchup. Perhaps we don’t recommend Lawrence against the Houston Texans in Week 3, but this week he should thrive.

Similarly, the late-season version of Young, should he continue to use his legs to amass fantasy points, is a legitimate fantasy sleeper against the Jaguars and many defenses. Young entered Week 13 with one rushing touchdown, and then he added five more in the final six games. This changed everything. Young also threw seven touchdown passes in the final three games and averaged 26.8 fantasy PPG in that span. Expect points in this one (take the ESPN BET over of 46.5 points, and Young over 225 passing yards), and each of these QBs should surpass 20 fantasy points.

Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: Similarly, New England Patriots sophomore Drake Maye can look around and see upgrades galore, from coaching to playmakers. Maye should find it easier to scramble this season, starting Sunday against the ordinary (at best) Las Vegas Raiders. … I am already thinking of trade offers to make for Chicago Bears sophomore Caleb Williams next week in a league or three if/when he struggles Monday versus the Minnesota Vikings. Hey, the Vikings play strong defense. However, Williams remains a worthy long-term investment. … The Los Angeles Rams claim Matthew Stafford (back) is healthy enough to start Sunday against the physical Texans. Those in deeper fantasy leagues should roster competent (but also brittle) backup Jimmy Garoppolo, too. Get ahead of this. What if Jimmy G ends up playing as much this season as New York Giants rookie Jaxson Dart or either of the Cleveland Browns rookies? Nobody knows.

Don’t be surprised if … Austin Ekeler is the Commanders RB to count on

The Commanders underutilized Ekeler in his first season with the franchise, and not just in the passing game. He averaged 4.8 yards per rush and showed burst when healthy. Most everyone presumes the Brian Robinson Jr. trade to the San Francisco 49ers was about getting rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt more touches. Perhaps, but Ekeler warrants more volume, too, and he can be a three-down back. Give bulkier Chris Rodriguez Jr. the short-yardage stuff. Croskey-Merritt is far from safe Sunday against the New York Giants, and not because the Commanders list him fourth on the depth chart. Pay no attention to team depth charts.

In fact, August fantasy draft darling Croskey-Merritt may watch much of Sunday’s game and become free agent material in many leagues by Wednesday, creating a value opportunity. This situation remains fluid, but Washington doesn’t have to force the rookie into double-digit touches initially. Ekeler scored 28.8 points in two games versus the Giants last season. Expect at least five receptions and ample touches this Sunday.

Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: I am hardly anti-rookie. For example, I see the Miami Dolphins giving Ollie Gordon II significant opportunities against the Indianapolis Colts, and not just because starting RB De’Von Achane (calf) is limited. I ranked Gordon ahead of Croskey-Merritt for a reason. Oh, and stop looking at what real-life round these rookies were chosen in, because coaches don’t care. … I would shy away, just a little, from Los Angeles Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton. Veteran Najee Harris (eye) is playing, he is proven and you know coach Jim Harbaugh likes him. … I am all-in for Patriots newcomer TreVeyon Henderson, though. I bet Rhamondre Stevenson is fantasy waiver fodder this week. … Speaking of rookies, keep Cleveland Browns second-rounder Quinshon Judkins rostered, even as he remains unsigned. That said, Jerome Ford is underrated by all. Watch the Browns score 30-plus on the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend. This is another tilt to bet the over (47.5 points).

Don’t be surprised if … Jakobi Meyers scores 20 fantasy points Sunday

Meyers made surprising news late in August when he requested a trade, seeking a contract extension. It didn’t happen. I can’t add empirical data here, but it sure seemed like Meyers started to get faded more in drafts after that news, which is fine because I kept investing. Meyers neither held out nor caused problems in camp. He kept practicing. He’s playing Sunday. In fact, there was oddly little follow-up to this news. Some think the Raiders quickly reacted by signing veteran Amari Cooper, but this may have occurred even without this “drama.” Fantasy managers reacted by choosing other wide receivers who didn’t catch 87 passes for 1,027 yards last season.

Interestingly, Cooper opted to retire on Thursday, so those who faded Meyers may regret that. I always believed Meyers is going to have another solid season in 2025, especially with competent Geno Smith at QB replacing the substandard crew of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. The presence of awesome rookie Ashton Jeanty aids the passing game, and there is far better coaching in place now. Oh, and this week Meyers heads back to New England for the first time to face his former organization. Timing is everything!

Other WR thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: Fading Miami Dolphins veteran Tyreek Hill (oblique) seems to be a (too) popular theme these days, for drafts and in Week 1. I don’t think Hill’s availability for Week 1 has been in question, and I like the matchup versus the Colts. I also don’t think we should assume QB Tua Tagovailoa throws nothing but short passes, as was clearly the plan late last season. If you have Hill already, rely on him. If you haven’t drafted yet, don’t shy away or you will miss a long TD this week. … Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman investors should love the Browns starting Joe Flacco against the Bengals. We could see a pair of 100-yard receiving efforts versus this defense. … I ranked Vikings newcomer/oldcomer Adam Thielen better than most because I trust he can quickly assimilate into this offense, and QB J.J. McCarthy should be fine. In a month, when Jordan Addison is no longer suspended, reevaluate. … It is fair to worry about New Orleans Saints veteran Chris Olave making it through four months. However, he is healthy this week, and we used to collectively rank him as a WR2. He is certainly playable this and every week, regardless of which inexperienced QB is throwing him the ball.