Contender Series Week 5 continues with a fight between Chasen Blair and Samuel Sanches in the lightweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Blair-Sanches prediction and pick.

Chasen Blair (7-3) enters Week 5 riding a submission win over Diego Visanzay in April, showcasing his slick grappling skills in the first round. Before that, Blair suffered a TKO loss to Kody Steele last fall on the Contender Series, rebounding quickly and proving his finishing instincts remain elite.

Samuel Sanches (10-1) storms into Week 5 off a blistering 54-second TKO win over Evaldo Santos this March, reaffirming his striking threat. Prior to that, he’s collected a streak of knockouts and two decisions, with his lone loss—a submission defeat to Hugo Vargas in 2022—still fueling his rise.

UFC Contender Series Odds: Chasen Blair-Samuel Sanches Odds

Chasen Blair: +100

Samuel Sanches: -130

Over 1.5 Rounds: -115

Under 1.5 Rounds: -115

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Why Chasen Blair will win

• Last Fight: (W) Diego Visanzay – SUB R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Chasen Blair enters Week 5 with momentum and a stylistic toolkit that poses real problems for Samuel Sanches. Blair’s grappling, highlighted by a recent first-round submission win, remains his most potent weapon—especially against a striker like Sanches who suffered his lone professional loss by submission.

If Blair can implement an early takedown game, he’ll not only neutralize Sanches’ knockout power but also sap his opponent’s confidence on the feet. Blair’s ability to transition quickly from strikes to level changes gives him an edge in creating scrambles and capitalizing on ground openings.

Sanches’ fast starts and knockout wins are impressive, but Blair has proven he can weather early offense and make pivotal adjustments. Blair’s experience rebounding from adversity after his DWCS loss to Kody Steele has sharpened both his composure and finishing instincts inside the octagon.

Expect Blair to avoid prolonged stand-up exchanges, force the action into clinch or mat scenarios, and work patiently for a submission or ground-and-pound finish. As Sanches tires from defending takedowns and grappling, Blair’s persistence should pay off late in the first or second round. With the right game plan, Blair’s wrestling and veteran savvy could deliver him the signature victory he needs.

Why Samuel Sanches will win

• Last Fight: (W) Evaldo Santos – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Samuel Sanches’ lightning-fast striking and killer instinct make him a nightmare matchup for Chasen Blair on Week 5 of the Contender Series. Sanches enters with explosive momentum, having stopped Evaldo Santos in under a minute and racking up six knockouts among his ten professional wins—proof of his ability to end fights from anywhere.

While Blair brings strong grappling credentials, Sanches has continually improved his takedown defense and shown patience when pressured. If he can keep the fight standing, Sanches holds a clear edge in speed and shot selection, often overwhelming wrestling-based foes with crisp combinations and well-timed counters.

Blair’s recent submission wins may encourage him to shoot early, but Sanches’ finishing instincts and aggressive pace will punish any sloppy entries. With youth and athleticism on his side, Sanches is likely to exploit Blair’s occasional defensive lapses in transition, either by stopping a takedown and landing a flurry or catching Blair during a scramble.

Ultimately, Sanches’ multi-layered offense and recent knockout streak suggest he’ll find his mark early. Expect Sanches to capitalize on one of Blair’s shots, stuff a takedown, and respond with a barrage for a highlight-reel finish inside the opening two rounds.

Final Chasen Blair-Samuel Sanches Prediction & Pick

This matchup between Chasen Blair and Samuel Sanches features a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, setting up a high-stakes chess match on Week 5 of the Contender Series. Blair’s best path lies in imposing his wrestling, as shown by his recent submission win, while Sanches’ remarkable knockout tally gives him a dangerous X-factor on the feet.

Expect Sanches to open with urgency, looking to land heavy punches and force Blair onto the back foot. If he can keep the bout standing, Sanches’ timing and finishing ability are likely to test Blair’s striking defense, especially in the chaotic first exchanges. However, if Blair can get past those early flurries and dictate where the fight takes place, his submission skills start to become a real factor.

The outcome hinges on who controls the tempo. Blair must avoid extended exchanges and chain together takedowns to disrupt Sanches’ rhythm, while Sanches should focus on keeping distance and delivering counters as Blair commits to his shots. Given Sanches’ pattern of rapid finishes and his improvements in defending takedowns, the edge goes to Sanches to catch Blair coming in and complete another highlight finish.

Final Chasen Blair-Samuel Sanches Prediction & Pick: Samuel Sanches (-130), Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)