Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight on the Premier League card, predicting more misery for West Ham and Graham Potter.

Liverpool vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm

David Moyes is one of the best pound-for-pound managers in English football. Of that there is no doubt.

But his away record against the big boys – notably Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City – it’s dreadful. And this weekend, that’s the big red elephant in the room for Everton. Since taking the West Ham job, Moyes has managed a team 19 times away at those three big clubs and has been beaten 18 times.

There’s lots of talk about renewed hope, a more attack-minded game plan and potentially a charge towards the European places, but it’s really difficult to see how Moyes’ approach at Anfield is going to lead to any points being banked.

Everton will give it their all on derby day, of course, and will be tough to break down, but Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet is a fantastic price to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet)

Brighton vs Tottenham Hotspur, Saturday 3pm

Thomas Frank has worked wonders at Spurs in a remarkably short time, tightening up what was once a leaky defence into a disciplined, well-organised unit. They have transformed from conceding goals regularly to frustrating even the most deadly attackers. Erling Haaland has scored once in eight of his last nine starts – the anomaly was Spurs.

Just one goal conceded from four games with three clean sheets is an impressive return.

Their defensive shape is sharper and the backline communicates with newfound cohesion with a focus on defending central areas of their box so astutely – a similar trait to the defensive unit Frank had at Brentford.

This improvement in the Spurs process means Brighton, known for attacking flair and chance creation, but a historical underperformance in front of goal, will struggle to break down Frank’s resilient Spurs side. Expect a cagey, tactical battle where chances are hard to come by. The under 2.5 goals line at 6/5 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Back under 2.5 goals (6/5 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm

The abrupt managerial change at Nottingham Forest remains a difficult scenario to assess with serious questions about stability and style of play, and with Ange Postecoglou still settling in, Forest’s performance levels and results could dip.

The players need time to adapt to new tactics and expectations, and that uncertainty is never a good look in the Premier League’s unforgiving environment.

Meanwhile, Burnley showed just how difficult it is to break them down in their recent defeat to Liverpool, where for 93 minutes they delivered a masterclass in defensive resilience. Scott Parker’s side remain rock-solid, disciplined and incredibly tough to beat based on the early signs.

Backing a tight game with under 2.5 goals looks a smart move here at 4/5 with Sky Bet with no surprises from this end if Burnley were to nick it.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

West Ham United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm

Graham Potter arrived at West Ham bringing fresh ideas and a calm, measured approach. But that calmness has started to look more like cold silence and in a place like West Ham, that just doesn’t cut it.

This is a fanbase that are full of passion for their club, one that want a manager who can not only deliver results but also spark something special and embody the club. They want real connection. That’s where Potter’s lack of charisma is really hurting him.

A manager like David Moyes before him had that grit, the personality and an emotional spark that could rally the team and fans alike when it mattered. Moyes was great in these pressurised home matches where his job was reportedly on the line. He won every time.

I’m not sure Potter’s quiet and measured style is going to help matters here for a team that are on their worst-ever home winless run at the London Stadium.

Things could get ugly, so backing Crystal Palace with a -1 handicap at 7/2 with Sky Bet looks the way in.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Leeds United, Saturday 3pm

Anton Stach might be a player we’re talking about more in the next few months – he has quietly but effectively stamped his mark on Leeds since arriving, bringing energy, intelligent positioning and a calming presence in midfield.

His box-to-box runs and eye for a key pass have steadily increased Leeds’ creativity and control, even if the goals haven’t quite come yet. Stach is the only Premier League player to reach double figures for shots (10) and chances created (10) this season.

It’s only a matter of time before Stach notches a goal or an assist – the signs are there.

Against Wolves, who’ve shown more defensive lapses this season than in the early stages of Vitor Pereira’s tenure, Leeds will be pushing hard, and Stach looks perfectly placed to capitalise on any opportunities. He is 11/4 with Sky to score or assist. It’s a price that’s going to land soon.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Manchester United vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

For all their obvious struggles, Manchester United’s attack have been creating chances this season. Just one goal scored from open play to a backdrop of 5.01 worth of expected goals is a significant underperformance and suggests big moments are being created, just not taken.

As is the case in football, those metrics usually correct themselves over a bigger sample size, therefore investing in United to start getting on a goal-train could be a profitable and wise move.

My eyes are drawn to Bryan Mbeumo to score at 5/2 with Sky Bet here. He’s getting into the right areas and has hit the target six times from his 18 shots this season, scoring against Burnley. A big moment looks around the corner for a player who – for a change – seems to be thriving in the environment at Old Trafford.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Fulham vs Brentford, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Away wins are on the rise in the Premier League – and it’s shaking up the traditional ‘home advantage’ narrative we’ve all been used to for years and one that is still factored – perhaps too heavily – into the way markets are priced up.

Managers are more willing to take the game to their opponents and possess much more data insight from analysts into the weaknesses of opponents.

Gone are the days when away teams would just hunker down and hope for a draw – games are there to be won now.

Last season, the away-win strike-rate rose to 35 per cent from 380 fixtures. That figure 15 years ago in the Premier League was just 24 per cent. And Brentford look a big price for the away win at 11/4 with Sky Bet.

Fulham have won only four of their last 14 Premier League games at Craven Cottage and were very lacklustre and fortunate to win 1-0 over Leeds in their last outing. There might be a bit of staleness creeping in under Marco Silva that hasn’t been factored into their win probabilities yet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Bournemouth vs Newcastle United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Andoni Iraola is creating a strong body of work when it comes to facing Eddie Howe.

When these two meet, Iraola’s tactical set-up tends to frustrate Newcastle’s game which is centred on physicality. Iraola’s teams are brilliant at shutting down space, disrupting patterns of play and hitting on the counter with sharp, clinical transitions.

It’s that balance of defensive rigidity and quickfire attacking that has consistently caught Howe’s sides off guard. In four meetings, Iraola is unbeaten against Howe, winning twice, and the underlying data paints a very clear picture of how Bournemouth have dominated the Toon.

In those four matches, Iraola’s team have averaged an expected goals per 90 of 2.4 – a huge figure. The home win is likely to be very popular at 13/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Sunderland vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

The Aston Villa downward trajectory wasn’t something I saw coming.

And while they remain in this malaise it’s hard to trust them to win football matches when priced up as the favourites at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

The glaring issue is their lack of cutting edge in the final third. Chance creation? It’s been painfully limited.

Failing to score in four matches can happen in a low scoring sport like football but the underlying numbers are extremely worrying. To put up a 0.77 expected goals tally per 90 from a relatively soft set of fixtures is a horrendous return – only Wolves have posted a lower figure.

To carry this goal drought weight with you to a place like the Stadium of Light, where the home crowd is a 12th man and the team is expertly drilled, doesn’t inspire much confidence that this is where things will spark for Villa.

The home side on the draw no bet at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks the way to play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Arsenal vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Gabriel Magalhaes vs Erling Haaland is always a riveting and blockbuster sideshow when these two rivals meet.

There’s animosity and with it comes excellent betting angles surrounding Haaland’s foul output. In eight meetings where he’s come up against Gabriel, the bulldozing City forward has made 16 fouls, so working to a two-per-game average.

That is a spike on his usual foul data and something which is not factored into the way Haaland’s foul probabilities are priced up by the traders.

That’s an edge right there in our favour.

To keep up this average of two fouls per game, Haaland is available at a whopping 11/4 with Sky Bet, implying a probability of just 26 per cent. I’d have the chances closer to 50 per cent in this type of fiery fixture where Arsenal should edge it.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Erling Haaland to commit +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Best Bets:

• 1pt double on Liverpool to win & under 3.5 goals & under 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Tottenham (4/1 with Sky Bet)
• 1pt on Erling Haaland to commit +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Bet)