Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered in the eleventh hour. Don’t miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 3.

Could Packers receiver Romeo Doubs have a big week against the Browns? Could Chiefs wideout Hollywood Brown go off against the Giants? What should we expect from the Bengals’ pass protection in front of Jake Browning? And will the Rams avenge their divisional-round loss to the Eagles with an upset? Let’s dive in.

Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 3 winners

How will the Steelers edge rushers T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig fare against the Patriots?

Here’s a shocking number through two weeks: Watt has a 7% pass rush win rate at edge. That’s less than half the average for a starting edge rusher (roughly 16%) and way below his career average of 24%. Watt has been chipped by tight ends an awful lot, but 7% is still shocking now matter how much attention he draws.

If there is a get-right game for Watt, it’s this one. He will likely face Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses, who has the lowest pass block win rate at tackle in the NFL (75%).

But the other side of the line is just as interesting to me: Herbig could have a big role since Alex Highsmith is out with an ankle sprain. The third-year pass rusher has had superb numbers in the past, with a 24% career pass rush win rate (you’ll note, the same as Watt!) despite being a backup. He should see rookie left tackle Will Campbell, whose 84% pass block win rate is better than Moses’ but still solidly below average.

How those two edge rushers perform could mean the difference between a good or bad day for Patriots QB Drake Maye.

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Will the Bengals pass protect better for Jake Browning?

An odd phenomenon occurred when Browning took over for Joe Burrow after his season-ending wrist injury in 2023: The Bengals’ pass protection appeared to improve dramatically. Cincinnati’s pass block win rate, which has been poor every season with Burrow on the team, increased from 47% with its franchise quarterback to 60% with Browning that season. Changes to the offense, such as play-action rates, shotgun rates and max protection rates, all don’t appear to be the root cause for this spike. The Bengals were slightly less pass happy with Browning, but not to the degree that I would expect it to cause this much of a difference.

Perhaps it’s just randomness. Perhaps it’s a flaw in the way pass block win rate — which tells us how often a lineman can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer — is measured. Or perhaps there’s something about the way the offense operates with Browning (due to either him or a change in scheme) that helps the offensive line out. I don’t know. But it’s something I’m going to be watching closely both in Week 3 and going forward.

If the Bengals do have even average pass protection with Browning, that would be a helpful mitigator to the loss of Burrow as he spends the next three months recovering from toe surgery.

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Can the Chiefs attack the Giants with WR Hollywood Brown in the slot?

Through two weeks, Brown is surprisingly tied for sixth in the NFL with 21 targets. And signs point to a high-volume day for him in Week 3, too. Brown has lined up in the slot on 52% of snaps this season, and that happens to be a good spot to attack the Giants from — 40% of targets against the New York have been to the slot, second most in the NFL.

Teams have gone after Giants second-year nickel Dru Phillips, who has been targeted 18 time this season — more than any other slot corner. The result? A high 1.6 yards allowed per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats (average is 0.9). It’s a matchup the Chiefs might look to exploit.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (44.9% rostered)

Tuten finished with 10 touches and 15.4 fantasy points in Week 2 thanks to a receiving touchdown, but he played just 18 snaps. He could see a bigger role against the Texans, who rank 24th in run stop win rate. Thanks in large part to Travis Etienne Jr., the Jaguars currently lead the league in rushing yards behind an offensive line ranked fifth in run block win rate.

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Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos (27.4% rostered)

Franklin led all Denver receivers in offensive snaps (83.3%), routes run (27) and targets (nine) against the Colts, finishing with 24.0 fantasy points. Even though the Chargers’ defense has been stingy against wide receivers, Franklin is Bo Nix’s second-favorite target after Courtland Sutton — and that’s important in fantasy.

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Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (26.5% rostered)

Doubs leads the Packers’ receivers in routes run (41) and targets (nine). He’s poised for an even bigger role moving forward after Jayden Reed had surgery on a broken clavicle and a Jones fracture in his left foot. Despite the Browns having a capable secondary and a defensive front ranked sixth in pass rush win rate, Doubs’ strong chemistry with Jordan Love makes him a compelling sleeper. The Packers’ offensive line should also hold up well, ranking ninth in pass block win rate.

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Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (14.3% rostered)

Ayomanor has shown excellent chemistry with No. 1 pick Cam Ward, seeing six or more targets in consecutive games and scoring 15.6 fantasy points in Week 2. He ranks second in routes run (54) and targets (12) among Tennessee receivers, sitting behind Calvin Ridley in both categories. The Colts are middle-of-the-road in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, making Ayomanor an intriguing flex option in deeper formats.

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Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (6.3% rostered)

Browning is fantasy relevant again with Joe Burrow expected to miss three months following surgery to repair a turf toe injury. With playmakers like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown, Browning is still set up for success in his first start since 2023. Over seven starts that season, he averaged 267 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game.

Bowen: Don’t be surprised if …

The Packers’ defense sacks Browns QB Joe Flacco at least three times

This upgraded Green Bay pass rush with Micah Parsons has a pressure rate of 40% (third in the league), and it has accounted for eight sacks in just two games (tied for second-most). With matchup advantages on the edges against the Browns’ offensive tackles, and Flacco’s reduced mobility, look for Parsons, Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness to heat up the pocket on Sunday. Flacco was sacked twice in each game this season.

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Cowboys WR George Pickens scores a touchdown against the Bears

Pickens caught his first touchdown of the season in the win over the Giants, and he has already seen five end-zone targets from quarterback Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, the Bears are down in the secondary following injuries to cornerback Jaylon Johnson (groin) and potentially nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon (hamstring). Pickens will have favorable matchups on the boundary Sunday, and the Cowboys can isolate him as the X receiver in the low red zone.

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Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr. has over 50 receiving yards against the Panthers

Through two weeks, Carolina is giving up an average of 94 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, and Pitts is seeing more volume with Michael Penix Jr. under center in Atlanta. Pitts only eclipsed 50 receiving yards once in the final eight games of last season, but he has already caught 11 of 13 targets for 96 yards through two games. The Falcons are moving him around the formation to get quality matchups, so look for Pitts to flex outside versus the Panthers’ cornerbacks and find work on underneath throws.

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 3

Los Angeles Rams +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Rams are the sharper, more explosive team this season, leading the NFL in plays of 15-plus yards. The Eagles are dead last in that category. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is thriving in coach Sean McVay’s under-center, play-action and motion-heavy scheme, completing more than 80% in those looks. Meanwhile, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been bottled up, posting the lowest deep-ball rate in the league and throwing nearly a quarter of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Hurts has also been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks through two weeks, which could be an issue against a Rams front that’s in the top 10 in pressure rate. Running back Saquon Barkley might be neutralized too, as Los Angeles ranks fifth in run stop win rate (34.4%). The Rams’ balance and explosiveness make them live to win outright Sunday.