Looking for sharp college football betting information through numbers and analysis?

My college football model — The Power Rank — comes from my background (Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. From 2022 through 2024, the model went 52.6% against the opening market (907-816 with 29 pushes in games in which prediction differed from the market by a point or more).

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In addition to the model, I research subjective factors that the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets.

Here are my best numbers and analysis on five key games for Week 5.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (-3.5, 52.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Oregon by 3.1 points

This colossal Big Ten matchup is the first real test for both teams. Oregon’s biggest challenge so far this season came at Northwestern as a 24.5-point favorite, while Penn State has been at least a 41.5-point favorite in three games.

Oregon QB Dante Moore had to win the job in training camp, but he has performed well in the early part of the season. To rate Oregon’s pass offense, I take yards per pass attempt (including negative plays from sacks) and adjust for opposing defenses with my mathematical algorithm. The Ducks’ pass offense ranks 13th in the nation in a small sample size.

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In my college football model, Oregon’s rating has not changed since the preseason.

Penn State had a number of key players not go to the NFL, and QB Drew Allar could be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. In addition, star RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton returned to share carries for the fourth season in a row. Despite these star players, the Penn State offense ranks a meager 63rd in my adjusted yards per attempt, again in a small sample size.

I would have favored Penn State by 2.5 points this preseason, and the shift towards Oregon by 3.1 points is because of the drop in the Nittany Lions’ rating. While this drop is probably too large because of the weak competition, there is likely some signal. Penn State doesn’t get the same credit as another program we will discuss below.

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James Franklin is 4-20 in games against AP top 10 opponents. The market thinks he can win this game at home, but there is also room for Oregon to cover with the spread larger than the key number of 3.

Bet: Lean Oregon +3.5

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3, 52.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Georgia by 0.5 points

It is difficult to rate this Georgia team with only three games. My model downgraded them against Marshall and Austin Peay for not doing enough against weaker teams. Two weeks ago, Georgia won a thrilling game in overtime at Tennessee, but the model didn’t move them at all based on the market and play-by-play data.

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Alabama got thumped by Florida State in Week 1 by a 31-17 score. However, this loss might not seem so bad if Florida State wins the ACC after a 2-10 season in 2024. The Crimson Tide have recovered with wins over Louisiana Monroe and Wisconsin, although the latter program might be in free fall under Luke Fickell.

While my model likes Alabama +3, it is probably underrating Georgia because of how it downgraded the Bulldogs against weaker competition. Kirby Smart gets more benefit of the doubt than James Franklin. Neither of these teams played last week.

Bet: Pass

No. 11 Indiana (-7.5, 48.5) at Iowa

The Power Rank prediction: Indiana by 9.2 points

Indiana destroyed Illinois last week by a 63-10 score. The markets moved towards Indiana all week (-4.5 to -7), and the advantage in NFL talent seemed to show up on the field.

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QB Fernando Mendoza — now the Heisman favorite — threw for 10.1 yards per pass attempt, much higher than the 6.39 college football average. Hooisers head coach Curt Cignetti continues to make transfers like Mendoza better when they arrive at Indiana. As another example, RB Roman Hemby has rushed for 5.3 yards per carry, higher than his last two seasons as Maryland’s primary back.

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Iowa had high hopes for QB Mark Gronowski, the transfer who led South Dakota State to two FCS national championships, but the Hawkeyes’ pass offense has been horrible (132nd in my adjusted yards per pass attempt). Maybe the offense will get better as Gronowski continues to recover from offseason shoulder surgery, but the early season data suggests otherwise.

Iowa had an incredible amount of turnover on defense from last to this season, but still ranks a solid 23rd in my adjusted yards per attempt. They will find it difficult to stop Indiana, though.

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Bet: Indiana -7.5

No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5, 51.5) at Washington

The Power Rank prediction: Ohio State by 8.3 points

Ohio State scored a huge opening week win over Texas, but the 14-7 final score was deceiving. Texas had a significant edge in total yards (336 to 203), and Ohio State got lucky on the game winning touchdown. QB Julian Sayin underthrew his receiver, but Carnell Tate brought down the jump ball for a 40-yard touchdown.

Ohio State has played two minnows since then, and the Buckeyes’ rating is the same in my college football model as it was in the preseason.

QB Demond Williams Jr. has taken over the Washington offense since the last two games of 2024, and it has excelled in a limited sample size this season. Washington ranks second in the nation in my adjusted yards per play, but they face a difficult test in Ohio State’s defense.

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Bet: Pass

Baylor (-20.5, 57.5) at Oklahoma State

The Power Rank prediction: Baylor by 12.7 points

For the first time since 2004, Oklahoma State will play a football game without alum Mike Gundy as head coach. After a winless Big 12 season in 2024 and a loss to in-state rival Tulsa last week, Gundy was fired.

My college football model tends to react quickly to the performance of a team. By my numbers, Oklahoma State has dropped from 64th in the preseason to 94th now. This corresponds to a 10.2-point drop in their rating.

However, this drop is still not large enough to catch the markets. A model can’t capture the reality of a program in free fall. Upon news of Gundy’s firing, a few sharp sports books went from Baylor -20 to -21 on Tuesday.

Bet: Pass

Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting information site.