admin
Sunday’s slate of Week 5 games culminates with an AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on “Sunday Night Football.”
New England (2-2) is coming off a 42-13 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers, while undefeated Buffalo disposed of the New Orleans Saints, 31-19.
The Bills and Patriots split their series last year, with both teams winning at home. They played twice in a three-week span last season but won’t meet again this year until Week 15.
Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite at +425, has won its last three games by double-digits and is favored by 7.5 points for Sunday’s tilt.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet Sunday night’s game.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET. 
Jump to:
Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Bills -7.5 (-105)
Maldonado: This matchup is about pressure (or lack of). Josh Allen is elite in both production and efficiency. When teams get to him, he’s human, but if they don’t, he’s unstoppable. That’s a problem for a New England team ranked near the bottom of the league in pressure rate, completion rate allowed, YPA allowed and touchdown rate. The Patriots have given up the second-most explosive plays in the league, while Buffalo leads the NFL in both points per drive (3.09) and explosive plays, so sustained scoring drives should come easy. On the other side, Drake Maye’s efficiency collapses under pressure, and Buffalo ranks second in creating it. Unless New England runs the ball efficiently, its offense will sputter. Over four quarters, Buffalo’s talent and pressure win out.
Notable player props, bets
0:47
Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?
Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.
Drake Maye to record 35+ yards rushing (+110)
Bowen: Maye is averaging 24.5 yards rushing per game this season, using his dual-threat ability to create as a runner on scramble attempts. And Maye will be forced to move against a Bills defense that leads the league with a pressure rate of 45.9%. Look for the second-year pro to extend plays outside of the pocket and pick up rushing numbers in this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 3+ receptions (+115)
Maldonado: I like this more than any yardage, touchdown or alt number on the board because it perfectly aligns with the most likely game script: Bills lead, Patriots trail. Buffalo’s high pressure rate historically spikes checkdown volume. Stevenson is top five among RBs in yards per route run and has already cleared this number in 50% of games without the negative script he’s likely to get Sunday. If the Bills cover, Stevenson’s usage almost certainly gets him three catches. It’s a plus-money play with a high probability of hitting and minimal dependency on broken plays or touchdowns.
Khalil Shakir to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110), score Anytime TD (+210)
Loza: Shakir has drawn fewer looks and run fewer routes than Keon Coleman four weeks into 2025, but his matchup is exploitable in Week 5. The Patriots have been middle of the pack versus the slot, allowing 275 receiving yards to that area of the field. Coincidentally, that’s where Shakir spends most of his time, recording a slot snap share of over 59% (WR12).
Additionally, Christian Gonzalez, who made his 2025 debut in Week 4 and limited Tetairoa McMillan to two catches and 31 receiving yards while in his assignment, figures to shadow Coleman. Gonzalez recorded a shadow rate of nearly 59% while giving up an average of 32.2 receiving yards in 2024. Facing softer coverage and in a game with a projected point total of 49.5, Shakir figures to emerge as Allen’s leading receiver on Sunday night. He’s facing plus coverage, has cleared the above line in three of four games and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests.
Dalton Kincaid to go OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moody: Given this game features one of the highest point totals on the slate, it’s a great opportunity for Kincaid to shine. Kincaid has cleared this line in three out of four games this season and now faces a Patriots defense that has given up the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
-
The Patriots have covered four straight meetings with two outright wins as underdogs.
-
All three Bills home games have gone over the total this season.
-
The Bills are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as single-digit favorites.
-
Unders are 39-19 on “Sunday Night Football” since 2023.
#Patriots #Bills #Drake #Maye #top #rushing #prop
