From retail doors to gross margin and even wholesale opportunities, Steve Madden Ltd.’s acquisition of Kurt Geiger is looking like a prescient move to some Wall Street analysts.

BTIG’s Janine Stichter sees a “long runway for retail growth” at Geiger, particularly in the U.S. She noted that the brand has six retail stores in the U.S., which she said are “performing well and showcasing strong four-wall profitability.”

Another opportunity is in the wholesale channel across the U.S. Current U.S. wholesale accounts includes Dillards, Bloomingdales and Nordstrom. She estimated that the total number of retail doors in the wholesale channel likely is less than 500, versus wholesale door counts by peers — for example, Coach, Kate Spade, and Michael Kors — that span between 1,2000 to 2,000.

“Particularly in the case of Michael Kors, there has also been shelf space donation, which we see continuing as retailers opt to not restock the brand onto the same level after clearing through excess inventory throughout ’25. As such, we see this as an opportunity for Kurt Geiger to gain shelf space,” Stichter wrote in a research note Thursday.

Madden’s management had expected Geiger to be immediately accretive to earnings per share (EPS), initially in the range of 10 cents in 2025. That was before the company pulled its guidance estimates due to tariff headwinds and the volatility in the macro-economic backdrop. Stichter met with management recently and believes that the initial accretion range is close to being achievable. She has a share price target of $40.

For next year, presuming the brand can re-accelerate revenue growth to a low-double-digits percent range and recoup a substantial portion of operating margin lost in 2025 due to tariff headwinds, “we believe the brand should account for over 40 cents in EPS,” the BTIG analyst said. That would be achievable, she said, since the primary driver could be the leveraging of selling, general and administrative expenses as the company scales into a $1 billion-plus business.

“Looking out long-term, we believe the Kurt Geiger brand can account for $1.50-$1.70 in EPS based on management’s assumptions of $1 billion in revenue and a mid-teens percent operating margin.”

Analyst Sam Poser at Williams Trading said in a research note Thursday that he’s raised the price target of Madden shares to $42 from $28, noting that “trends and channel mix moving in Madden’s favor.”

“First, there is a shift to women’s dress shoes underway, that plays into the strength of the core Steve Madden brand,” Poser said, noting that Steve Madden’s “best successes have generally come from interpreting shoes originally made by designer brands.” He said that many of the designer brands — Manolo Blahnik, Cloe, Valentino and others — have new compelling shoes, with the new dress shoes and boots generally on lower kitten or block heels, or are flats or western style boots.

Poser also thinks many retailers will allocated more of their open-to-buy to the Steve Madden and Dolce Vita brands. Also, he believes that Madden is well positioned to benefit and gain market share as other smaller private brands raise prices due to higher costs from tariffs as they do not have the scale or factory relationships that can match those of Madden.

He also expects Geiger’s pro forma Fiscal Year 2025 revenue to be $550 million, up 10 percent year-over-year. Over the longer term, Geiger had growth opportunities in the U.S. that will be “additive” to Madden over time.

“Recent checks indicate that Kurt Geiger handbags and shoes are quietly gaining a following in the southern United States,” Poser said. “Further, there are indications that some urban fashion retailers are beginning to show interest in Kurt Geiger women’s and kid’s sneakers. The women’s Kurt Geiger sneakers retail from $188 to $248, and kid’s sneakers have an average retail of $70.”

Geiger overall has a geographic revenue mis of 50 percent in the U.K., 35 percent in the U.S. and the balance from the rest of the world. Sixty percent of total revenue is from handbags and the balance of 40 percent from footwear. “Excluding non-leather slides, Kurt Geiger women’s footwear prices range from $125 to $450, and handbags range from $75 to $395,” the Williams Trading analyst noted. That compares with Madden’s women’s footwear prices ranging from $50 to $350, and handbags between $49 to $179.

Madden in February inked a deal to acquire the Kurt Geiger brand for $360 million from Cinven. The transaction closed in May. At the time, when Madden posted first quarter earnings, the company’s brand continues to demonstrate “outstanding momentum,” adding that its differentiated and elevated positioning in the market makes it a “complementary addition” to the company. He cited strategic initiatives that include “expanding in international markets, accessories categories and direct-to-consumer channels.”

Madden in July reported second quarter profits that were down due to wholesale order cancellations and late shipments amid a backdrop of tariff uncertainties. At the time, there were indications that dress shoes and boot sales continued to gain traction.

Madded is slated to report third quarter earnings results in early November.