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Rohit Ponnaiya breaks down his favorite Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props ahead of tonight’s critical Game 4 clash in the ALCS.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Seattle Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo (58) throws against the Detroit Tigers.
The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to a 13-4 victory over the Seattle Mariners in Game 3 of the ALCS last night. That said, they are still down 2-1 in this best-of-seven series, and they have a tough matchup in Game 4 tonight with Seattle boasting a significant advantage on the hill.
My Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props are backing the Mariners’ right-hander, Luis Castillo, and fading Toronto starter Max Scherzer. I’m also betting on a Canadian slugger with my best MLB picks for Thursday, October 16.
For more on ALCS Game 4, check out Neil Parker’s Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions!
Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 4 props
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Castillo o4.5 Ks |
+135 |
 Scherzer o1.5 ER |
-130 |
| Naylor o1.5 H+R+RBI |
+110 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners player prop picks
Prop #1: Luis Castillo Over 4.5 strikeouts
+135 at BetMGM
The Toronto Blue Jays strike out at the lowest rate in the majors, but it’s still tough to turn down the Over 4.5 strikeouts prop for Luis Castillo at plus money.
The Seattle Mariners starter eclipsed this number in 11 of his final 15 regular season starts, averaging 5.5 strikeouts per start. The three-time All-Star also pitches significantly better at home, where he logged a 2.60 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.7% through 100 1/3 innings during the regular season.
Castillo’s arm should also be well rested since he has pitched just once in the last 10 days. He threw just 15 pitches in that appearance to close out Game 5 of the ALDS last Friday.
Prop #2: Max Scherzer Over 1.5 earned runs allowed
-130 at BetMGM
Toronto is giving the pill to veteran Max Scherzer tonight. Scherzer is a future Hall-of-Famer with 25 postseason starts on his resume, but he’s now 41 years old and is a shell of his former self.
Scherzer had a 5.19 ERA in 17 regular season starts this year, and he ranked near the bottom of the majors in barrel rate and ground-ball rate. The righty really struggled towards the end of the season, surrendering 25 runs in his final 25 innings pitched.
Mad Max was left off the ALDS roster, and while the Jays needed to dig deeper into their rotation in this series, I don’t see him having success. This Mariners lineup was sixth in the majors in barrel rate and fourth in hard-hit rate during the regular season.
Prop #3: Josh Naylor Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
+110 at BetMGM
There would be a certain cruel irony if Mississauga native Josh Naylor were to help knock the Jays out of the postseason. The hard-hitting first baseman went 0-for-3 at the plate last night but has still been red-hot, going 9-for-21 with three extra-base hits over his last five games.
Naylor has been mashing since the Mariners traded for him at the deadline, slashing .299/.341/.490 with his new team. Perhaps most impressive is that he’s been hitting extremely well at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, where he slashed .360/.408/.607 with 19 runs and 22 RBI in 26 games.
Naylor will have the platoon advantage tonight against Scherzer. Not only has Scherzer struggled this year, but he’s been especially bad versus left-handed hitters, who are slugging .545 against him.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and Game 4 info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Thursday, October 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:33 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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