Unlike the single-elimination Big 12 Tournament, West Virginia will be in a double-elimination style tournament this weekend in the four-team Clemson Regional.

With the change in style comes the question of who West Virginia should pitch in their opening game on Friday.

“Within the next 24 hours, we need to decide who we’re going to pitch so we can line up their bullpens and their preparation for game one. Usually, when you’re a two- or three-seed, you don’t have the luxury of pitching off. Sometimes a one-seed will do that when they’re facing a four-seed in order to win a tougher matchup down the road in the tournament. But normally, you just go with your horses. So we’ll go look at left-handed, right-handed match-ups and decide who we need to pitch,” West Virginia head coach Steve Sabins said on Sunday.

The Mountaineers are set to face Kentucky, and then, win or lose, they will face the winner or loser from the Clemson/USC Upstate game. For the sake of this argument, because Clemson is the top seed, they are going to win against USC Upstate and advance to the 1-0 game on Saturday.

This begs the question, what gives West Virginia the best chance to beat Kentucky on Friday, and looking ahead, what would give them the best chance to most likely beat Clemson.

Jack Kartsonas has been WVU’s second-best starter this season, the second part of a 1-2 punch.

Kartsonas has been good for most of the second half of the season, boasting a 2.90 ERA, with 69 strikeouts in 59.0 innings pitched.

Beyond those numbers are the advanced numbers for Kartsonas.

His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sits at .327, higher than his batting average against of .242 on the season. Kartsonas’ strikeout percentage sits just above 27 percent on the season, but it’s the types of contact he gives up that are the most important number to watch heading into the regional.

Kartsonas thrives on getting opponents to put the ball on the ground. His groundball percentage sits at 49 percent of balls put in play, which ranks in the top 175 of 671 pitchers in the country.

Other numbers for Kartsonas include him allowing line drives 21.90 percent of the time, fly balls 29 percent of the time, while 11.1 percent of those fly balls end up being home runs.

Kirn’s approach and the way he is effective, is quite different in how he attacks opposing lineups.

Kirn has a 3.32 ERA on the season with 92 strikeouts in 86.2 innings pitched this season. Kirn’s strikeout percentage sits at 25.1 percent this year, while his batting average against is at .241, and his BABIP is at .297, ranking just outside of the top 200 pitchers nationally.

Kirn’s contact from opponents comes in different forms than Kartsonas’s. Kirn’s groundball rate is at 36.6 percent, his line drive rate is at 17.6 percent, but his fly ball rate is at 45.8 percent, which is right outside the top-100 in the country. Out of those fly balls, 11.50 percent leave the park for home runs.

Kirn’s main difference from Kartsonas is the physical makeup, as he is a left-handed pitcher compared to Kartsonas, who throws from a right-handed slot.

The important thing to understand while doing this is winning the first game of the regional is the most important game to win when trying to win the region outright. That makes WVU’s game against Kentucky the most important game of the weekend.

On the season, Kentucky’s offensive numbers are not prolific. They’re not a team that is going to put on a power show, but rather a team that is going to find their way on base and find ways to score runs.

The Wildcats’ most recent lineup has three left-handed hitters and a switch-hitter in Tyler Bell. Bell is the most dangerous bat in the UK lineup, leading them in runs batted in and is third on the team in batting average. Right behind him is Luke Lawrence, a left-handed bat, who is top four on the team in both RBIs and batting average as well.

The other two left-handed hitters, each have 21 RBIs or fewer, and they also are hitting .252 or worse on the season.

Looking at all Kentucky hitters who have at least 75 at-bats on the season, there are certain trends across the lineup.

The Wildcats’ BABIP is at .328, while their strikeout percentage is roughly 19 percent. This means 19 percent of their at-bats end in strikeouts, and out of all balls put in play, 33 percent of them end in a hit.

Kentucky also is putting the ball on the ground less often than Clemson. The Wildcats are hitting groundballs 41.95 percent of the time, while they are hitting fly balls 39.9 percent of the time. Out of those fly balls, 9.1 percent end up being hit for a home run.

Out of the four teams in the regional, Kentucky ranks last in batting average, home runs, runs scored, and walks. They rank first in triples and stolen bases.

Out of Kentucky’s hitters, the ones who strikeout the most are Carson Hansen, Hudson Brown, and Tyler Bell. Hansen also hits a fly ball 50 percent of the time, with 23.1 percent of those fly balls resulting in a home run.

Two right-handed batters in Cole Hage and Devin Burkes are dangerous at the plate. Hage is first on the team in home runs, while Burkes has the fifth-most RBIs on the team this season. Both have the majority of their balls hit put in play, with 17.6 percent of Hage’s fly balls resulting in a home run. That ranks second-most on the Wildcats.

It’s also important to note the hitter-friendly ballpark that is Doug Kingsmore Stadium. In their home games this season, the Tigers hit 1.06 home runs per game, while in their road games, they hit .82 home runs per game. While there is not much difference, the Tigers have hit home runs more often while at home this season, showing a possible hitter-friendly park.

This would be more important for a guy like Kirn who allows more fly balls in a game, compared to Kartsonas.

The Tigers hit more home runs than Kentucky, but they are more prone to hitting the ball on the ground.

With guys who have at least 75 at-bats this season, they are averaging 47.28 percent of their balls put in play to be on the ground. 34.94 percent of balls put into play are in the air, however, 15.71 percent of those end up being a home run.

Clemson’s qualified hitters are more left-hand dominant than Kentucky’s as well. Cam Cannarella has a .407 BABIP, with a .339 overall batting average. Collin Priest is another left-handed bat, leading the Tigers in RBIs this season. Trystan McCladdie has played in 34 games this year, but has a .406 BABIP on the year.

Clemson’s most recent lineup combination had five right-handed hitters to start, followed by three of the last four batters in the lineup being left-handed.

Out of those three left-handers, of Cannarella, Priest, and McCladdie, all three are putting the ball on the ground in almost half of their balls put in play. McCladdie is hitting a ground ball 58 percent of the time.

In addition, three of the four hitters on Clemson with the highest strikeout percentage are right-handed, seemingly playing into Kartsonas’ hands over Kirn.

Clemson’s high home run percentage on fly balls is somewhat scary for opponents, as Jacob Jarrell has had 28.8 percent of his fly balls go for home runs this season. He also leads them with 15 home runs on the season.

McCladdie and Priest are second in third in home runs hit on fly balls this year, as Priest is second on the team with 12 home runs, while McCladdie has five homers, while registering fewer than 100 at-bats on the season.

Clemson has 71 home runs on the season, the second-most out of any team in the regional. As an offense though, they also have the most strikeouts on the team as well.

Seemingly, Kirn’s tendencies are a better matchup against a team like Kentucky, while Kartsonas fits facing a lineup like Clemson.

The hesitation with not pitching Kirn against a Clemson team would be their left-handed hitters of Cannarella and Priest are extremely dangerous.

Kartsonas’ ability to get groundball outs seems to be a good problem for a team like Clemson, which puts the ball on the ground at a higher rate than the Wildcats.

Kirn allows more fly balls, and Clemson has a higher rate of home runs hit at home compared to on the road. When the Tigers put the ball in the air, and for every 10 fly balls, almost two of them result in a home run for them.

It’s also important to note what pitchers would ideally be most effective in relief against each team. Against Kentucky, a guy like Ben McDougal, who induces a fly ball 43 percent of the time but has yet to give up a home run in 19.1 innings pitched, is an option.

Against Clemson, a Reese Bassinger, who has a 50.3 groundball percentage, or Chase Meyer, who has a 68.2 groundball percentage, along with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate, would be a good matchup against the Tigers who hit the ball on the ground more often, and also are more prone to striking out than Kentucky.

Overall, Kirn seems like the logical answer to face Kentucky, while Kartsonas’s tendencies match up with Clemson. While that’s what it means on paper, all of that can change starting at noon on Friday.

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